๐๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐ช๐ต๐ถ๐น๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ก๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐
Gold prices remain weak as traders wait for the US CPI inflation report. Vedika Narvekar of Anand Rathi says the outlook for gold and silver stays cautious. The metal faces pressure from a stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields.
Last week, the US jobs report showed payrolls rose by 172,000. Economists expected 85,000. The strong labor market signals the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Markets now expect a rate hike by December.
The jobs data pushed Treasury yields and the US dollar higher. Assets like gold saw reduced demand. Hedge funds sold bullish positions. Profit-booking added to the drop.
Gold has erased all gains for 2026. It is down nearly 3% year-to-date. The metal trades around 22% below pre-war levels and more than 25% below the record high from January.
Tensions in the Middle East have grown after Iranian strikes on Israel. Oil prices moved higher. These events usually lift safe-haven demand for gold. Instead, investors now focus on inflation and interest rates.
China extended its gold-buying streak to 18 months. The country added 8 tonnes in April. Central bank buying remains supportive. For now, rising yields and tighter policy expectations drive price action.
Focus This Week
The US CPI report stands as the primary event. A hot reading would reinforce fears the Fed must tighten sooner. This would push yields and the dollar higher. Gold would face more pressure.
A soft reading would ease rate-hike fears. Short covering would follow.
Traders also watch crude oil. Sustained prices above $90 per barrel would keep inflation fears alive. This would limit gold recovery despite geopolitical risks.
Technical Levels
Gold Spot: $4,175 per ounce Support: $4,070 and $3,850 Resistance: $4,380 and $4,500
MCX Gold: โน149,600 Support: โน145,800 and โน138,100 Resistance: โน156,900 and โน161,000
Silver Spot: $64 per ounce Support: $61 and $58.50 Resistance: $69 and $72.50
MCX Silver: โน234,900 Support: โน224,400 and โน215,300 Resistance: โน253,840 and โน266,716
Outlook
Both gold and silver closed below their 200-day moving averages. This signals weakening momentum.
The near-term outlook stays cautious. Rising real yields, a stronger dollar, and Fed tightening expectations push prices lower. Speculative investors continue to sell.
Central bank buying and geopolitical risks offer long-term support. The market now follows interest rates rather than geopolitical news.
Unless inflation slows or economic data weakens, rallies will hit resistance. Sustained trading below the 200-day moving average leads to further downside.