๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฎ ๐๐ผ ๐ข๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐น๐ผ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐๐ฃ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฌ
India will pass China in its share of global GDP by around 2060. Researchers at the World Inequality Lab published this finding in the Global Justice Report.
China now holds about 20% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms. This is roughly one-third higher than the share of the United States. Under current projections, China's economy will grow to nearly twice the size of the US economy by 2035.
China's population share is falling fast. It dropped from 23% of the world population in 1945 to about 17% in 2025. It will fall to less than 8% by 2100.
Because of these trends, China's share of world GDP will stabilize and decline during the second half of this century. India will move past China around 2060.
The report states China will not reach the economic dominance once held by the United States or Europe. The US held 35 to 40% of world GDP around 1950. Europe held 40 to 45% around 1900 to 1910.
The global economy will grow more multipolar during the 21st century. This differs from the more concentrated structures of the 19th and 20th centuries.
The report also notes key differences between India and China:
- India has more inequality than China
- India has lower productivity growth than China
- China spends more on human capital with better targeting
The World Inequality Lab operates at the Paris School of Economics. It studies inequality across countries.
Purchasing power parity shows the amount of goods and services a currency buys compared to another country. It offers a way to compare economic size outside of market exchange rates.
The latest World Economic Outlook shows these GDP projections for 2026:
- United States: $32.38 trillion
- China: $20.85 trillion
- India: $4.15 trillion, up from $3.92 trillion in 2025
- United Kingdom: $4.27 trillion
- Japan: $4.38 trillion, down from $4.48 trillion in 2025