๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐ ๐๐บ๐ถ๐ฑ ๐ง๐ฒ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ข๐ถ๐น ๐๐ถ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป
Fitch Ratings expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen before August. The agency says logistics issues caused the current supply bottleneck. The disruption is temporary. It does not represent a permanent drop in oil production.
- Fitch forecasts an average Brent crude price of $87 per barrel in 2026
- The base case assumes a closure period of about five months
- Fitch expects global oil markets to return to surplus conditions from September onward
- Fitch projects Brent crude prices to fall sharply once normal shipping operations resume
- No major oil infrastructure damage occurred so far
- Saudi Aramco restored operations within roughly two weeks after the 2019 attacks
- Oil held in tankers and onshore storage facilities will reach markets first after reopening
- Fitch expects production across the Middle East to rebound rapidly due to limited infrastructure impact
- Supply growth from non-OPEC producers and potential OPEC output increases support the surplus outlook
- Before the conflict, Saudi Arabia and the UAE shipped roughly half of the oil passing through the strait
- Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran exported the remaining volumes
- Asia received 91% of the crude oil transported through the strait. China accounted for 32% and India accounted for 15%