Rupee Ends Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, snapping a two-session winning streak to settle 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite favorable global developments in energy markets and geopolitical de-escalation, domestic equity outflows prevented a stronger recovery.

Geopolitical Calm and the Impact of Lower Crude Prices

Global markets received a significant boost from news regarding a US-Iran peace framework agreement. This diplomatic progress has led to optimism surrounding the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global artery for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

For the Indian economy, which relies on imports for nearly 90% of its oil requirements, this development is a crucial positive indicator. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, saw a 1.68% decline, trading at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade. As noted by market experts, lower crude prices act as a "favorable wind" for the rupee by reducing the country's import bill and easing trade deficit concerns.

Foreign Capital Outflows Counteract Positive Sentiment

While geopolitical factors provided a tailwind, the rupee's gains were capped by domestic market activity. Although Indian equity benchmarks closed higher—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to 23,989.15—the institutional sentiment remained cautious.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session. This outflow of foreign capital exerted downward pressure on the domestic currency, preventing it from capitalizing fully on the easing dollar index, which sat marginally lower at 99.61.

Technical Outlook: Expected Trading Ranges for USD-INR

Despite the minor dip, analysts maintain a constructive outlook for the rupee in the near term. The interbank foreign exchange market saw the rupee trade in a range between 94.48 and 94.71 before settling at 94.60.

Market experts suggest that the USD-INR spot price is likely to oscillate within a defined corridor. Research analysts at Mirae Asset Sharekhan expect the pair to trade between 94.10 and 94.90. Meanwhile, experts from HDFC Securities suggest a downward bias for the USD-INR, with spot levels gravitating toward 94.10, while identifying 95.20 as a key resistance level that could cap any corrective spikes.

Key Takeaways