Rupee Breaks Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar
The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, ending a two-session winning streak to settle 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite positive global cues and easing crude oil prices, domestic currency movements were constrained by significant outflows from the Indian equity markets.
Global Geopolitics and the Crude Oil Factor
The global energy landscape provided a supportive backdrop for the rupee, even as the currency slipped. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, saw a decline of 1.68 per cent, trading at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade. This downward trend is largely attributed to a US-Iran peace framework agreement, which is expected to facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy shipping route.
For India, which relies on imports for nearly 90 per cent of its oil requirements, lower crude prices act as a significant tailwind. The de-escalation of tensions in West Asia remains a primary driver for market optimism, with US Vice President JD Vance set to lead the American delegation for the formal peace deal signing in Switzerland this Friday.
Foreign Capital Outflows Cap Rupee Gains
While the macro environment was favorable, the domestic currency faced pressure from the equity markets. Although the BSE Sensex rose by 544.15 points to close at 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gained 135.25 points to end at 23,989.15, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers.
According to exchange data, FIIs offloaded equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session. This persistent selling pressure from foreign capital acted as a cap on the rupee's ability to maintain its recent momentum, which had seen gains of 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday.
Technical Outlook and Market Forecasts
Despite the minor dip, market analysts remain largely constructive regarding the rupee's near-term trajectory. The USD-INR spot price experienced intraday volatility, moving within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before settling at 94.60.
Les avis des experts suggèrent un mouvement latéral avec un biais baissier potentiel :
- Mirae Asset ShareKhan prévoit que le cours au comptant de l'USD-INR évoluera dans une fourchette de 94,10 à 94,90.
- HDFC Securities prévoit que les niveaux au comptant pourraient tendre vers 94,10 à court terme, tout en identifiant 95,20 comme un niveau de résistance clé qui pourrait limiter tout mouvement correctif temporaire.
Alors que l'indice du dollar oscillait autour de 99,61, l'interaction entre la stabilité géopolitique et les flux de capitaux étrangers restera le facteur décisif pour la performance de la roupie dans les semaines à venir.
Points clés
- La roupie s'est établie à 94,60, interrompant un rallye de deux jours en raison de sorties de capitaux des FII s'élevant à 749,18 crores ₹ des actions indiennes.
- La baisse des prix du brut Brent (81,77 $ le baril) et la désescalade en Asie de l'Ouest offrent des perspectives positives à long terme pour la monnaie nationale.
- Les analystes prévoient une fourchette de négociation à court terme pour l'USD-INR entre 94,10 et 94,90, avec 95,20 faisant office de résistance immédiate.