Rupee Snaps Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee faced a minor setback on Tuesday, ending its two-session winning streak to settle 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite favorable global developments in energy markets, domestic capital outflows prevented the currency from maintaining its recent upward momentum.

Market Volatility and the Impact of Capital Outflows

The rupee exhibited significant movement throughout the trading session, opening at 94.69 and fluctuating within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before settling at 94.60. This slight decline comes after a period of strong recovery, where the currency had gained 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday.

While global sentiments remained relatively stable, the primary drag on the rupee was the persistent selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Even as domestic equity benchmarks saw gains—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty climbing 135.25 points to 23,989.15—FIIs remained net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹749.18 crore. This outflow of foreign capital placed immediate pressure on the domestic currency.

On the global front, several factors provided a cushion for the rupee. The easing of tensions in West Asia, particularly surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement, has bolstered market confidence. The expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global energy shipments, has contributed to a more stable outlook for commodity markets.

This geopolitical de-escalation has directly impacted energy prices. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, saw a decline of 1.68 per cent, trading at $81.77 per barrel. For an economy like India, which imports nearly 90 per cent of its oil requirements, lower crude prices act as a significant tailwind for the rupee by reducing the demand for foreign exchange to fund energy imports.

Expert Outlook: Expected Trading Ranges

Despite the minor slip, market analysts remain largely constructive regarding the rupee's near-term trajectory. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was marginally lower at 99.61, suggesting a non-aggressive stance from the USD.

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