Rupee Snaps Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, ending its two-session winning streak to settle 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite positive global developments and easing crude oil prices, domestic currency volatility was driven by persistent capital outflows from the Indian equity markets.

Global Geopolitics and the Impact of Crude Oil

The global energy landscape provided a significant cushion for the rupee during Tuesday's trading session. Following a US-Iran peace framework agreement, optimism regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime route for global oil and liquefied natural gas—has bolstered market sentiment.

This geopolitical de-escalation contributed to a decline in global energy costs, with Brent crude trading 1.68% lower at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade. For an economy like India, which imports approximately 90% of its oil requirements, such price corrections act as a structural support for the domestic currency by narrowing the current account deficit.

FII Outflows Cap Domestic Currency Gains

While the broader equity markets showed resilience, with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to close at 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to 23,989.15, the rupee faced pressure from foreign capital movements.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the Indian markets, offloading equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session. This continuous outflow of foreign capital acted as a primary headwind, preventing the rupee from capitalizing on the lower dollar index, which stood marginally lower at 99.61. Earlier in the day, the rupee had fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before settling at the final mark of 94.60.

Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Despite the minor dip, market analysts remain constructive regarding the rupee's near-term trajectory. Experts suggest that the currency is likely to maintain a downward bias, potentially gravitating toward the 94.10 level.

Menurut analis riset, harga spot USD-INR diperkirakan akan diperdagangkan dalam koridor tertentu. Mirae Asset ShareKhan memproyeksikan rentang perdagangan antara 94,10 dan 94,90. Sementara itu, HDFC Securities mengidentifikasi 95,20 sebagai level resistansi jangka pendek utama yang dapat membatasi setiap pergerakan koreksi naik yang sesekali terjadi. Semua mata tertuju pada penandatanganan resmi perjanjian damai di Swiss pada hari Jumat ini, yang diharapkan akan lebih lanjut memengaruhi tren mata uang dan komoditas global.

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