Rupee Snaps Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee ended its two-session winning streak on Tuesday, closing slightly lower by 2 paise at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite positive geopolitical developments and softening crude oil prices, domestic currency performance was weighed down by persistent outflows from the equity markets.

Geopolitical Optimism vs. Market Volatility

The rupee's movement on Tuesday was characterized by a tug-of-war between global optimism and domestic capital outflows. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the currency opened at 94.69 and fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before settling at 94.60.

Forex traders noted that the currency received significant support from the de-escalation of tensions in West Asia. A US-Iran peace framework agreement, which US President Donald Trump indicated will be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday, has bolstered market sentiment. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy shipping route—has provided a psychological cushion for the rupee.

Crude Oil and the Import Factor

A major tailwind for the Indian economy remains the softening of global energy prices. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped by 1.68% to trade at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade.

For India, which relies on imports for nearly 90% of its oil requirements, lower crude prices act as a fundamental support for the rupee. As Amit Pabari, Managing Director of CR Forex Advisors, noted, lower oil prices act like "a favourable wind behind a ship" for the domestic currency, reducing the country's import bill and easing current account pressure.

FII Outflows Cap Domestic Gains

Despite a positive rally in Indian equity benchmarks—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to close at 23,989.15—the rupee could not maintain its momentum.

The primary headwind was the continued selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). According to exchange data, FIIs remained net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session. This exodus of foreign capital into the US dollar capped the rupee's ability to gain ground, even as the Dollar Index marginally declined to 99.61.

Prospek Teknis dan Level Resisten

Analis pasar mempertahankan prospek konstruktif untuk pasangan USD-INR dalam jangka pendek, meskipun terjadi penurunan tipis. Pakar riset menyarankan bahwa mata uang tersebut kemungkinan akan diperdagangkan dalam koridor yang ditentukan.

Anuj Choudhary, Analis Riset di Mirae Asset ShareKhan, memperkirakan harga spot USD-INR akan berfluktuasi antara 94,10 dan 94,90. Memberikan pandangan teknis yang lebih spesifik, Dilip Parmar dari HDFC Securities mencatat bahwa pasangan tersebut mempertahankan bias penurunan dengan potensi bergerak menuju 94,10. Namun, ia memperingatkan bahwa 95,20 tetap menjadi level resisten jangka pendek yang kuat yang dapat membatasi reli korektif yang signifikan.

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