US Markets Slide: Nasdaq and S&P 500 Drop as Fed Signals Hawkish Turn

Major US indices witnessed a sharp sell-off on Wednesday as investors recalibrated their expectations following the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting. While interest rates remained unchanged, a surprisingly hawkish tone from central bank officials sparked fears of imminent rate hikes to combat persistent inflation.

Fed Holds Rates Steady but Signals Potential Hikes

The Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates within the 3.50%-3.75% range, a move that was widely anticipated by market participants. However, the decision was overshadowed by new quarterly projections that painted a much stricter monetary policy picture. According to the latest data, nine central bank officials now expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026.

Crucially, the Fed’s official policy statement removed previous language that had hinted at the possibility of rate cuts within this year. This shift suggests that the central bank is prioritizing price stability above all else, particularly as they grapple with inflationary pressures stemming from recent oil-price spikes linked to the Iran war.

Chair Warsh’s Hawkish Stance Rattles Traders

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh departed from traditional central bank protocols by not submitting an interest-rate-path projection as part of the quarterly forecasts. Instead, Warsh focused heavily on the mandate of price stability in his communications with reporters.

This shift in rhetoric had an immediate impact on market sentiment. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, trader bets that rates would remain steady through the end of the year plummeted from 40% on Tuesday to just 15.7%. The market is now pricing in significant volatility: expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by December stand at nearly 38%, while the probability of a more aggressive 50-basis-point hike is approximately 33%.

Market Reaction: Major Indices Take a Hit

The hawkish pivot led to a broad-based decline across Wall Street. The S&P 500 fell by 1.19%, losing 89.59 points to close at 7,421.76. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw a steeper decline, dropping 1.32% (349.14 points) to end at 26,027.21. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average was not immune, sliding 0.96% to close at 51,494.99.

Meskipun penjualan ritel AS menunjukkan kekuatan yang tidak terduga pada bulan Mei—yang didorong oleh peningkatan pembelian kendaraan meskipun harga bensin lebih tinggi—ketidakpastian geopolitik seputar kesepakatan damai AS-Iran sangat membebani sentimen. Setelah reli singkat menyusul pembicaraan damai pendahuluan, harga minyak merangkak naik lagi karena Presiden Trump mengindikasikan bahwa perjanjian tersebut belum final, yang menyebabkan kecemasan pasar kembali muncul.

Pergerakan Korporasi: CME Group dan Allbirds

Dalam berita saham individu, saham CME Group turun menyusul pengumuman bahwa CEO Terry Duffy akan mengundurkan diri pada 1 Maret untuk bertransisi ke peran sebagai chairman eksekutif. Sebaliknya, saham Allbirds melonjak setelah perusahaan melakukan rebranding menjadi "Smartbird," menandai peralihannya dari alas kaki menjadi entitas yang berfokus pada AI, dan menunjuk mantan eksekutif Amazon Nadia Carlsten sebagai CEO barunya.

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