Rupee Snaps Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee halted its recent winning streak on Tuesday, closing 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. This minor decline interrupted a strong two-session recovery, even as global geopolitical tensions eased and crude oil prices provided a supportive backdrop.

Market Volatility and Trading Range

After seeing significant gains of 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday, the rupee faced resistance during Tuesday's interbank foreign exchange market session. The currency opened at 94.69 against the greenback and experienced intraday volatility, fluctuating within a range of 94.48 to 94.71. It eventually settled at 94.60, slightly down from its previous close of 94.58.

While the dollar index saw a marginal dip to 99.61, the rupee's momentum was checked by domestic capital outflows. Despite the slight dip, the currency remains in a sensitive zone influenced by both international energy shifts and local equity market movements.

The Geopolitical Factor and Crude Oil Impact

A significant driver for the rupee’s recent performance has been the de-escalation of tensions in West Asia. The expected US-Iran peace framework agreement, with a formal signing scheduled for Friday in Switzerland led by US Vice President JD Vance, has brought optimism to global markets.

This peace deal is anticipated to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route. Consequently, Brent crude—the global oil benchmark—saw a 1.68 per cent decline, trading at $81.77 per barrel. For India, which relies on imports for nearly 90 per cent of its oil requirements, lower crude prices act as a structural support for the rupee.

FII Outflows Counteract Equity Gains

On the domestic front, a mixed signal emerged from the equity markets. While Indian benchmarks showed strength—with the BSE Sensex climbing 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to close at 23,989.15—Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained cautious.

FIIs were net sellers during the session, offloading equities worth ₹749.18 crore. This persistent selling pressure from foreign investors has acted as a cap on the rupee's ability to sustain its recent rally, pushing the currency lower despite the positive sentiment in the broader indices.

Prospettiva degli esperti: Proiezioni a breve termine

Gli analisti di mercato rimangono cautamente costruttivi riguardo alla traiettoria USD-INR. Gli esperti suggeriscono che la valuta continuerà probabilmente a scambiare all'interno di un corridoio specifico nei prossimi giorni.

Anuj Choudhary di Mirae Asset ShareKhan prevede che il prezzo spot USD-INR scambi in un intervallo tra 94,10 e 94,90. Allo stesso modo, Dilip Parmar di HDFC Securities ha osservato un bias ribassista per la coppia, suggerendo che i livelli spot potrebbero gravitare verso 94,10, identificando al contempo 95,20 come un livello di resistenza chiave che potrebbe limitare le correzioni al rialzo.

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