Will Nifty Hit 25,000 This Month? Key Levels to Watch in the Week Ahead

The Indian equity markets are currently navigating a period of high volatility as investors weigh technical signals against recent sector-specific corrections. While a recent hammer candle formation offers a glimmer of optimism for bulls, reaching the psychological 25,000 mark by month-end remains an uncertain prospect.

Nifty Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amidst Uncertain Targets

Despite the recent downward gap following a 50-day streak of higher closes, market sentiment is not entirely bearish. According to Geojit Investment’s chief market strategist Anand James, a "hammer candle" formation on Friday suggests the potential for an upward move. However, reaching the 25,000 milestone is not immediately evident on the charts.

For the upcoming week, market participants should look at the 24,300–24,600 range as the immediate target. While the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, investors are advised to maintain a strict downside support watch at the 23,800 level. If the index breaks below this support, it could trigger further selling pressure.

IT Sector Under Pressure: Navigating 3-Year Lows

The Nifty IT index is facing significant technical headwinds. Following a sharp crash triggered by Accenture’s lower FY26 growth guidance, the index has slumped to 3-year lows, with several heavyweight stocks hitting 5-year lows.

The index is currently hovering near a critical horizontal support zone between 26,500 and 27,000. While the weekly RSI indicates the sector is in "oversold" territory—suggesting a potential pause or mild pullback—the dominant trend remains one of selling pressure. Friday's recovery in some stocks appeared to be driven by short-covering rather than fresh institutional buying, keeping the broader trend fragile.

Defence and Power: The Emerging Momentum Plays

In contrast to the IT sector, the Defence index is showing remarkable strength, hitting a fresh 52-week high. The index has undergone a multi-week range breakout, supported by a bullish MACD crossover. Analysts expect the index to continue its upward trajectory toward the 9,880–10,000 region, driven by stocks like BEL, BDL, and Mazagon Dock, which are attempting a reversal.

Sektor tenaga juga menunjukkan tanda-tanda kekuatan. Saham Transformers & Rectifiers (India) melonjak 10% pada hari Jumaat selepas melengkapkan penembusan corak "inverted Head and Shoulders". Walaupun konsolidasi jangka pendek mungkin berlaku disebabkan corak "evening star" pada rangka masa yang lebih kecil, prospek jangka panjang kekal bersedia untuk pergerakan yang mampan.

Rumusan Utama

  • Strategi Nifty: Sasarkan sasaran antara 24,300–24,600, tetapi kekalkan pemantauan hentian rugi/sokongan yang ketat pada 23,800.
  • Divergensi Sektor: IT kekal lemah secara teknikal berhampiran sokongan kritikal (26,500–27,000), manakala sektor Pertahanan menunjukkan momentum yang kuat ke arah tanda 10,000.
  • Pemantauan Saham: Radico Khaitan membentangkan persediaan bullish dengan sasaran 4,000–4,200, manakala New India Assurance menunjukkan momentum yang kuat walaupun terdapat kenaikan mendadak baru-baru ini.