Rupee Ends Two-Day Rally, Settles at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, breaking a recent two-session winning streak to settle 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite favorable global shifts in energy markets, domestic equity outflows prevented the currency from maintaining its upward momentum.

Market Volatility and Intraday Movement

The rupee experienced a volatile session in the interbank foreign exchange market. After opening at 94.69 against the greenback, the domestic currency fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before closing at 94.60. This follows a period of significant recovery, where the rupee had gained 67 paise on Friday and another 60 paise on Monday. While the USD-INR spot price showed resilience, the minor decline reflects a cooling period after those rapid gains.

Geopolitical Optimism vs. Capital Outflows

Two major global factors provided a support floor for the rupee, even as it slipped slightly. First, the de-escalation of tensions in West Asia—driven by a US-Iran peace framework agreement—has raised hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a critical global energy shipping route, and stability there generally favors emerging market currencies.

However, these positive global cues were countered by domestic headwinds. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the Indian equity markets, offloading shares worth ₹749.18 crore during the session. This outflow of foreign capital acted as a primary cap on the rupee's ability to strengthen further.

Impact of Easing Crude Oil Prices

For an economy like India, which imports nearly 90% of its oil requirements, energy prices are a decisive factor for currency stability. On Tuesday, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded 1.68% lower at $81.77 per barrel in futures. As noted by market experts, lower crude prices act as a "favorable wind" for the rupee, reducing the demand for dollars to fund energy imports and easing the current account deficit pressure.

Expert Outlook: Range-Bound Movement Ahead

Market analysts suggest that while the rupee may face intermittent resistance, the near-term trend remains relatively constructive. Analysts from Mirae Asset Sharekhan expect the USD-INR spot price to trade within a range of 94.10 to 94.90.

Ponadto eksperci z HDFC Securities wskazują na potencjalną tendencję spadkową dla pary USD-INR, przy czym poziomy spot prawdopodobnie będą oscylować wokół 94,10. Z kolei poziom 95,20 został zidentyfikowany jako kluczowy poziom oporu, który może ograniczać wszelkie znaczące korekty wzrostowe.

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