Rupee Snaps Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee faced a minor setback on Tuesday, breaking a recent two-session winning streak to settle 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite positive global developments and easing crude oil prices, domestic market pressures prevented the currency from maintaining its upward momentum.

Global De-escalation vs. Domestic Capital Outflows

The foreign exchange market saw the rupee open at 94.69, fluctuating within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before settling at 94.60. This move follows a significant recovery period where the rupee had gained 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday.

Forex traders noted that while the de-escalation of tensions in West Asia and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz provided a strong support floor for the currency, local headwinds were too strong to ignore. Specifically, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the Indian equity markets, offloading shares worth ₹749.18 crore during the session. This outflow of foreign capital acted as a cap on the rupee's gains, pushing the domestic currency slightly lower.

The Crude Oil Factor and US-Iran Peace Framework

A significant driver for the rupee’s recent strength has been the cooling of global energy prices. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded 1.68% lower at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade. For an economy like India, which imports approximately 90% of its oil requirements, lower crude prices act as a major tailwind for the rupee by reducing the import bill and easing the current account deficit.

This drop in oil prices is closely linked to the US-Iran peace framework agreement. With US President Donald Trump announcing that Vice President JD Vance will lead the American delegation to Switzerland this Friday for the formal signing, markets are optimistic about the stability of global energy shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.

Market Outlook: Expected Trading Ranges

Despite the minor slip, market analysts remain largely constructive regarding the rupee's near-term trajectory. Analysts suggest that while the currency may face intermittent volatility, the overall bias remains toward strength or stability.

Anuj Choudhary, research analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, expects the USD-INR spot price to trade within a range of 94.10 to 94.90. Providing a slightly more bullish outlook, Dilip Parmar of HDFC Securities noted that the USD-INR is expected to maintain a downward bias, with spot levels likely gravitating toward 94.10. He also identified 95.20 as a key resistance level that could cap any significant corrective moves toward the upside.

Key Takeaways