受贸易协议乐观情绪推动，卢比连续第二个交易日上涨，收于 94.33
周五，印度卢比连续第二个交易日走强，兑美元上涨 7 派士，收于 94.33。这一上涨势头主要受到潜在的印美贸易谈判所带来的乐观情绪推动，这有助于抵消对地缘政治紧张局势和美元走强的担忧。
印美贸易协定推动市场情绪
卢比表现的一个重要催化剂是市场预期印度与美国将加速达成一项中期贸易协定。在印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普进行讨论后，印度外交秘书维克拉姆·米斯里证实，贸易仍是双边对话的核心支柱。
两国已指示谈判代表加快拟议协定的签署进程。为了进一步推动这一情绪，美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔计划于下周访问印度，以推进这些关键谈判。这一外交进展为印度本币提供了急需的提振，帮助其从 94.52 的盘中低点回升，最终收于 94.33。
地缘政治不确定性与油价动态
尽管贸易前景乐观，但卢比的涨幅受到持续存在的全球不确定性的限制。有报道称，美国副总统 JD·万斯因物流原因推迟了原定前往瑞士与伊朗谈判代表会谈的计划，这使得投资者保持谨慎。美伊和平进程的这一延迟为全球市场引入了一层风险偏好方面的谨慎情绪。
在大宗商品方面，随着全球石油基准布伦特原油下跌 0.65% 至每桶 79.33 美元，这为印度经济带来了一些缓解。较低的油价通常会减轻印度经常账户赤字的压力，为本币提供助力。与此同时，美元指数小幅下跌 0.08%，交易于 100.76。
市场展望与股市表现
While the currency market showed resilience, the domestic equity market faced a downturn. The benchmark Sensex dropped by 607.08 points to close at 76,802.90, and the Nifty fell 154.90 points to settle at 24,013.10. However, a silver lining emerged as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers, pumping Rs 4,859.07 crore into the Indian equity market.
Analysts suggest that the rupee is currently positioned within a technical range, with firm support at 94.10 and resistance at 94.90. If capital inflows continue to rise, experts believe the rupee could potentially march toward the 94 mark. For the coming week, the currency is expected to remain range-bound between 94 and 95, heavily dependent on developments in the US-Iran diplomatic corridor.
Key Takeaways
- Trade Catalyst: Optimism surrounding an interim India-US trade pact and the upcoming visit of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer supported the rupee.
- Global Headwinds: Geopolitical tensions involving the US-Iran peace process and volatility in the US dollar index limited the currency's upward momentum.
- Market Indicators: While equities faced a sharp decline, FIIs turned net buyers with purchases worth over Rs 4,859 crore, providing liquidity to the domestic market.