卢比中断连续两日的涨势，兑美元收于 94.60
印度卢比在周二遭遇小幅回落，结束了连续两个交易日的上涨势头，兑美元下跌 2 派斯，收于 94.60。尽管全球油价和地缘政治稳定方面释放了积极信号，但国内资本外流阻碍了该货币维持上涨势头。
地缘政治稳定与原油因素
在整个交易时段内，全球能源格局为卢比提供了有力支撑。随着美伊和平框架协议的达成，西亚局势出现了降温迹象。预计这一进展将促使霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，该海峡是全球石油和液化天然气 (LNG) 出口的关键航道。
这一地缘政治转变的影响反映在原油市场上，布伦特原油期货下跌 1.68%，交易价格为每桶 81.77 美元。对于像印度这样近 90% 的石油需求依赖进口的经济体而言，较低的原油价格是本币的主要利好因素。
外国机构投资者 (FII) 流出限制国内涨幅
尽管宏观环境总体有利，但卢比的复苏受到了国内市场动态的限制。虽然印度股市基准指数有所上涨——BSE Sensex 指数上涨 544.15 点至 76,808.48，NSE Nifty 指数上涨 135.25 点至 23,989.15——但外国机构投资者 (FII) 的情绪依然保持谨慎。
交易所数据显示，FII 仍为净卖家，在交易时段内抛售了价值 ₹749.18 crore 的股票。外资的流出对卢比施加了下行压力，使其未能充分利用全球油价回落带来的利好。
专家展望：预计将呈现区间波动
市场分析师认为，虽然卢比面临轻微下跌，但整体趋势仍相对积极。预计美元兑卢比 (USD-INR) 现货价格在短期内将在特定区间内波动。
Anuj Choudhary, research analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, anticipates the USD-INR spot price to trade within a range of 94.10 to 94.90. Adding further perspective, Dilip Parmar of HDFC Securities noted a potential downward bias, suggesting spot levels could gravitate toward 94.10. However, he warned that 95.20 would likely act as a strong resistance level, limiting any significant corrective moves upward.
As the world watches the formal signing of the US-Iran peace deal in Switzerland this Friday, currency volatility is expected to remain linked to the progress of these diplomatic negotiations.
Key Takeaways
- Market Performance: The rupee settled at 94.60, a 2-paise decline, breaking a recent rally fueled by a 67-paise gain on Friday and a 60-paise gain on Monday.
- Oil and Geopolitics: Lower Brent crude prices ($81.77) and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz provided a cushion for the currency.
- FII Impact: Despite a rally in the Sensex and Nifty, foreign institutional investors net-sold equities worth ₹749.18 crore, limiting the rupee's strength.