Rupee Breaks Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee ended its recent winning streak on Tuesday, slipping 2 paise to close at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite positive global developments and falling crude oil prices, domestic market pressures prevented the currency from sustaining its recent upward momentum.

Market Volatility and Interbank Movements

After a strong recovery over the previous two sessions—gaining 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday—the rupee faced resistance during Tuesday's trade. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened at 94.69 and fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71. It eventually settled at 94.60, slightly below its previous close of 94.58.

While the dollar index remained marginally lower at 99.61, providing some relief to emerging market currencies, the rupee's gains were capped by significant headwinds in the domestic equity space.

Crude Oil Easing and Geopolitical Optimism

A major tailwind for the rupee has been the easing of global energy prices. Brent crude, the global benchmark, saw a decline of 1.68 per cent, trading at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade. For an economy like India, which relies on imports for nearly 90 per cent of its oil requirements, lower crude prices provide significant fiscal support.

This decline is largely attributed to de-escalating tensions in West Asia. Optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace framework agreement is expected to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). US President Donald Trump recently announced that Vice President JD Vance will lead the American delegation for the formal signing of this peace deal in Switzerland this Friday.

FII Outflows Counteract Equity Gains

Despite the positive geopolitical news, the rupee faced pressure from foreign institutional investors (FIIs). While Indian equity benchmarks showed strength—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to 23,989.15—the capital flow remained negative. FIIs were net sellers during the session, offloading equities worth Rs 749.18 crore, which acted as a drag on the domestic currency.

Perspectives des experts et niveaux de résistance

Les analystes de marché restent prudemment optimistes quant à la trajectoire de la roupie à court terme. Les analystes de Mirae Asset ShareKhan prévoient que le cours au comptant de l'USD-INR évoluera dans une fourchette de 94,10 à 94,90.

De plus, les recherches de HDFC Securities suggèrent un biais à la baisse pour l'USD-INR, les niveaux au comptant étant susceptibles de graviter vers la marque des 94,10. En revanche, le niveau de 95,20 a été identifié comme une résistance clé à court terme qui pourrait limiter tout mouvement correctif à la hausse.

Points clés à retenir