Rupee Ends Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee snapped a recent winning streak on Tuesday, closing slightly lower as foreign capital outflows offset positive global developments. Despite easing crude oil prices and geopolitical optimism, the domestic currency ended the session at 94.60 against the greenback.

Market Volatility and Trading Range

After experiencing a strong recovery over the previous two sessions—gaining 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday—the rupee faced resistance on Tuesday. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the currency opened at 94.69 and fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71. It eventually settled at 94.60, a marginal decline of 2 paise from its previous close of 94.58.

While the US dollar index remained marginally lower at 99.61, suggesting a softening of the greenback globally, domestic headwinds prevented the rupee from maintaining its upward momentum.

Geopolitical Gains vs. Equity Outflows

Two major global factors provided a support floor for the rupee: the de-escalation of tensions in West Asia and the anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The expected US-Iran peace framework agreement, with a formal signing set for Friday in Switzerland, has boosted market sentiment.

However, these tailwinds were countered by significant selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Despite domestic equity benchmarks closing higher—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to 23,989.15—FIIs remained net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹749.18 crore. This outflow of foreign capital placed immediate downward pressure on the rupee.

The Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices

For an economy like India, which imports nearly 90% of its oil requirements, fluctuations in energy prices are a critical determinant of currency strength. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, saw a 1.68% decline, trading at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade.

Market experts note that lower crude prices act as a "favourable wind" for the rupee, as they reduce the demand for dollars to fund energy imports. The peace developments in the Middle East are expected to stabilize energy shipping routes, further supporting this trend.

แนวโน้มทางเทคนิคและการคาดการณ์ในอนาคต

แม้จะมีการชะลอตัวลงเล็กน้อย แต่นักวิเคราะห์ยังคงมีมุมมองเชิงบวกต่อทิศทางของค่าเงินรูปีในระยะสั้น ผู้เชี่ยวชาญในตลาดคาดการณ์ว่าราคา Spot ของ USD-INR มีแนวโน้มที่จะซื้อขายอยู่ในกรอบระหว่าง 94.10 ถึง 94.90

Dilip Parmar นักวิเคราะห์การวิจัยจาก HDFC Securities ระบุว่า คาดว่าค่าเงินจะยังคงมีแนวโน้มอ่อนค่าลง โดยระดับราคา Spot อาจเคลื่อนเข้าหาแนว 94.10 ในทางกลับกัน ระดับ 95.20 ถูกระบุว่าเป็นแนวต้านสำคัญที่อาจจำกัดการปรับตัวขึ้นอย่างมีนัยสำคัญ

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