Rupee Snaps Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, ending a two-session winning streak to settle 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite positive global cues regarding oil prices and Middle Eastern stability, domestic capital outflows prevented the currency from maintaining its recent momentum.

Market Volatility and Daily Trading Range

After a strong recovery over the previous two sessions—gaining 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday—the rupee opened at 94.69 against the greenback on Tuesday. Throughout the interbank foreign exchange market, the currency fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71. It eventually settled at 94.60, marginally down from its previous close of 94.58. While the dollar index remained marginally lower at 99.61, the rupee could not capitalize on the broader dollar weakness.

Geopolitical Optimism vs. FII Outflows

The primary support for the rupee stemmed from de-escalating tensions in West Asia. Optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace framework agreement is expected to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy shipping route. This geopolitical shift has a direct impact on energy security and currency stability.

However, these gains were effectively capped by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). While domestic equity benchmarks showed resilience—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to close at 23,989.15—FIIs remained net sellers. According to exchange data, these foreign investors offloaded equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session, putting downward pressure on the rupee.

The Impact of Easing Crude Oil Prices

For an economy like India, which imports nearly 90% of its oil requirements, crude oil prices are a critical determinant of currency strength. On Tuesday, Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded 1.68% lower at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade.

Experts noted that lower oil prices act as a "favourable wind" for the rupee by reducing the import bill and easing the current account deficit. The anticipated signing of the peace deal in Switzerland, led by US Vice President JD Vance, continues to be a major driver for lower commodity prices and increased market stability.

มุมมองจากผู้เชี่ยวชาญและระดับแนวต้าน

นักวิเคราะห์ตลาดส่วนใหญ่ยังมีมุมมองเชิงบวกต่อแนวโน้มของค่าเงินรูปีในระยะสั้น แม้ว่าจะมีการปรับฐานเล็กน้อยก็ตาม Anuj Choudhary นักวิเคราะห์การวิจัยจาก Mirae Asset ShareKhan คาดการณ์ว่าราคา Spot ของ USD-INR จะเคลื่อนไหวอยู่ในกรอบระหว่าง 94.10 ถึง 94.90

นอกจากนี้ Dilip Parmar จาก HDFC Securities ชี้ว่า USD-INR มีแนวโน้มปรับตัวลดลง โดยระดับราคา Spot มีแนวโน้มที่จะเคลื่อนเข้าหา 94.10 ทั้งนี้เขาได้ระบุว่า 95.20 เป็นระดับแนวต้านสำคัญในระยะสั้นที่อาจจำกัดการปรับตัวขึ้นอย่างมีนัยสำคัญ

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