Rupee Snaps Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, ending a two-session winning streak to settle 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite positive global cues regarding oil prices and Middle Eastern stability, domestic capital outflows prevented the currency from maintaining its recent momentum.

Market Volatility and Daily Trading Range

After a strong recovery over the previous two sessions—gaining 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday—the rupee opened at 94.69 against the greenback on Tuesday. Throughout the interbank foreign exchange market, the currency fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71. It eventually settled at 94.60, marginally down from its previous close of 94.58. While the dollar index remained marginally lower at 99.61, the rupee could not capitalize on the broader dollar weakness.

Geopolitical Optimism vs. FII Outflows

The primary support for the rupee stemmed from de-escalating tensions in West Asia. Optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace framework agreement is expected to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy shipping route. This geopolitical shift has a direct impact on energy security and currency stability.

However, these gains were effectively capped by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). While domestic equity benchmarks showed resilience—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to close at 23,989.15—FIIs remained net sellers. According to exchange data, these foreign investors offloaded equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session, putting downward pressure on the rupee.

The Impact of Easing Crude Oil Prices

For an economy like India, which imports nearly 90% of its oil requirements, crude oil prices are a critical determinant of currency strength. On Tuesday, Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded 1.68% lower at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade.

Experts noted that lower oil prices act as a "favourable wind" for the rupee by reducing the import bill and easing the current account deficit. The anticipated signing of the peace deal in Switzerland, led by US Vice President JD Vance, continues to be a major driver for lower commodity prices and increased market stability.

Прогноз експертів та рівні опору

Ринкові аналітики зберігають загалом позитивний прогноз щодо короткострокової траєкторії рупії, незважаючи на незначну корекцію. Анудж Чоудхарі, дослідник у Mirae Asset ShareKhan, очікує, що спотова ціна USD-INR торгуватиметься в діапазоні від 94,10 до 94,90.

До цього додає Діліп Пармар з HDFC Securities, який вказує на тенденцію до зниження USD-INR, при цьому спотові рівні, ймовірно, тяжітимуть до 94,10. Він визначив 95,20 як ключовий рівень опору в короткостроковій перспективі, який може обмежити будь-які значні корекційні рухи вгору.

Основні висновки