Rupee Breaks Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee halted its recent recovery on Tuesday, closing 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite a backdrop of easing global oil prices and diplomatic optimism in West Asia, domestic currency movements were tempered by significant foreign capital outflows from Indian equity markets.

Market Volatility and Trading Range

After experiencing a strong two-session recovery—gaining 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday—the rupee faced resistance during Tuesday's interbank foreign exchange market. The currency opened at 94.69 against the greenback and experienced fluctuations within a range of 94.48 to 94.71. It eventually settled at 94.60, slightly below its previous close of 94.58.

While the dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, sat marginally lower at 99.61, the rupee's gains were capped by broader market sentiment and institutional selling.

The Impact of Oil Prices and Geopolitical Shifts

A major driver for the rupee's recent strength has been the cooling of crude oil prices. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded 1.68% lower at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade. For India, which relies on imports for nearly 90% of its oil requirements, lower crude prices act as a significant tailwind for the domestic currency.

This downward trend in oil prices is largely attributed to a US-Iran peace framework agreement. The expected formal signing of this deal in Switzerland, led by US Vice President JD Vance, has raised hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a critical global energy shipping route, the stabilization of this corridor is viewed as a positive development for global commodity markets and, by extension, the rupee.

FII Outflows Counteract Equity Gains

Despite a positive day for Indian stock benchmarks—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to 23,989.15—the currency faced headwinds from institutional behavior.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session. This persistent outflow of foreign capital has acted as a primary factor preventing the rupee from sustaining its recent upward momentum.

Nhận định của Chuyên gia và Các mức Kháng cự

Các nhà phân tích thị trường vẫn giữ thái độ lạc quan thận trọng về quỹ đạo của đồng rupee. Các chuyên gia cho rằng mặc dù có sự biến động, xu hướng trong ngắn hạn có thể nghiêng về việc tiếp tục tăng giá.

Anuj Choudhary, nhà phân tích nghiên cứu tại Mirae Asset ShareKhan, dự báo giá giao ngay USD-INR sẽ giao dịch trong phạm vi từ 94,10 đến 94,90. Thêm vào đó, Dilip Parmar từ HDFC Securities lưu ý về xu hướng giảm tiềm năng của USD-INR, cho rằng các mức giá giao ngay có thể hướng về mức 94,10, đồng thời xác định 95,20 là mức kháng cự chính có thể kìm hãm bất kỳ đợt điều chỉnh đột ngột nào.

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