受 RBI 干预及美元流入预期推动，卢比创六周新高
周三，印度卢比表现出显著的韧性，兑美元汇率触及 94.29 的六周高点，随后收于 94.53。在印度储备银行 (RBI) 的战略措施以及对即将到来的美元流入的乐观预期推动下，此次反弹已连续第四个交易日实现上涨。
RBI 措施推动 FCNR-B 存款利率上升
卢比近期走强的主要驱动力是印度储备银行为增强美元流动性而采取的积极立场。为了吸引海外印度资本，各银行已大幅提高非居民外币存款 (FCNR-B) 的利率，涨幅达 200 至 450 个基点。
此举是在一项关键监管决策之后做出的，即 RBI 同意承担与外币挂钩存款募集相关的对冲成本。通过允许银行按平价进行美元掉期，监管机构显著降低了募集此类存款的成本，为增加美元流入创造了有利环境。包括资深外汇顾问 KN Dey 在内的市场专家预计，这些资金流入将从下周开始获得显著动力，为本币提供进一步支撑。
原油价格下跌与全球情绪的影响
除了国内政策外，外部因素在卢比的表现中也起到了至关重要的作用。受全球原油价格持续下跌的提振，该货币开盘上涨 10 派萨，报 94.46。能源成本的下降缓解了印度经济面临的部分下行压力。
HDFC 证券分析师 Dilip Parmar 指出，在此期间，卢比的表现优于其亚洲同行。能源市场的情绪受到供应压力缓解预期的驱动，这可能与有关美伊协议的讨论有关。随着原油价格走软，用于资助石油进口的美元需求减少，为卢比创造了天然的利好因素。
市场波动与阻力位
Despite the bullish momentum, the rupee faced immediate resistance during intraday trading. After reaching its peak of 94.29, the currency retreated to close at 94.53, up from Tuesday's close of 94.56. This pullback was primarily attributed to demand from corporate entities and importers who stepped in to purchase dollars at the 94.29/30 levels.
While the recent appreciation is a positive sign, the rupee remains significantly weaker than its historical benchmarks. It is still trailing far behind the 90.98 per dollar close recorded on February 27, prior to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, the currency remains below the 95.78 level seen on June 4, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the forex market.
Key Takeaways
- Strategic Policy Boost: The RBI’s decision to absorb hedging costs has led banks to hike FCNR-B deposit rates by up to 450 basis points to attract foreign dollars.
- External Tailwinds: Softening global crude oil prices and potential geopolitical shifts have improved sentiment, helping the rupee outperform many of its Asian counterparts.
- Anticipated Inflows: Market experts expect a surge in dollar inflows starting next week, which could provide further upward momentum for the Indian currency.