Rupee Ends Two-Day Rally to Settle at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, breaking a two-session winning streak to close 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar. Despite favorable global cues, including easing crude oil prices, domestic equity outflows prevented the currency from making further gains.

Market Volatility and Trading Range

After a strong recovery where the rupee gained 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday, the currency opened at 94.69 in the interbank foreign exchange market. Throughout the session, the rupee experienced fluctuations, trading within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before eventually settling at 94.60. While the Dollar Index saw a marginal dip to 99.61, the rupee was unable to capitalize on the dollar's slight weakness.

Global Geopolitics and Crude Oil Impact

The primary drivers supporting the rupee's outlook remain the de-escalation of tensions in West Asia. A US-Iran peace framework agreement, which US President Donald Trump indicated will be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday by a delegation led by VP JD Vance, has significantly impacted commodity markets.

This diplomatic progress is expected to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route. Consequently, Brent crude prices fell by 1.68 per cent to $81.77 per barrel. For India, an economy that imports nearly 90 per cent of its oil requirements, this downward trend in crude provides a significant tailwind for the domestic currency.

FII Outflows Offset Equity Market Gains

While domestic equity benchmarks showed strength—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to close at 23,989.15—the currency faced pressure from capital flight. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session. This persistent selling by foreign players acted as a cap on the rupee's ability to sustain its recent rally.

Expert Outlook and Resistance Levels

Market analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the rupee's near-term trajectory, suggesting a potential downward bias in the USD-INR pair. Experts from Mirae Asset ShareKhan expect the USD-INR spot price to trade within a range of 94.10 to 94.90.

De plus, les analystes de HDFC Securities suggèrent que les cours au comptant pourraient graviter vers le seuil de 94,10 à court terme. Cependant, ils avertissent que le niveau de 95,20 est susceptible de faire office de résistance importante, ce qui pourrait limiter tout mouvement correctif ascendant significatif.

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