US Stocks Slump as Fed Signals Potential Rate Hikes to Curb Inflation

Wall Street faced a sharp sell-off on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve's recent policy signals shifted investor sentiment from optimism to caution. Major indices tumbled as traders recalibrated their expectations, bracing for a more aggressive monetary policy stance to combat persistent inflationary pressures.

Fed Holds Rates Steady but Turns Hawkish

While the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range as anticipated, the underlying tone of the meeting was decidedly "hawkish." New quarterly projections revealed that nine central bank officials now expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026.

In a significant departure from previous communication strategies, the Fed's policy statement removed language that had previously suggested the possibility of rate cuts later this year. Furthermore, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh broke tradition by not submitting an interest-rate-path projection as part of the quarterly forecasts. Instead, Warsh emphasized the central bank's unwavering commitment to delivering price stability, particularly as policymakers wrestle with inflation pressures stemming from oil-price spikes linked to the Iran war.

Market Reaction: Nasdaq and S&P 500 Lead the Decline

The shift in sentiment was immediately reflected in the closing numbers of the major US indices. The S&P 500 dropped 89.59 points, or 1.19%, to finish at 7,421.76. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw a steeper decline, falling 349.14 points, or 1.32%, to close at 26,027.21. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average was not spared, shedding 499.18 points, or 0.96%, to end at 51,494.99.

The impact on trader expectations was profound. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of rates holding steady through the end of the year plummeted from 40% on Tuesday to just 15.7%. Markets are now pricing in significant volatility, with expectations for a 25-basis-point hike by December sitting at nearly 38%, while a more aggressive 50-basis-point hike holds a 33% probability.

Geopolitical Tensions and Retail Resilience

Volatilitas pasar semakin diperparah oleh fluktuasi harga minyak dan ketidakpastian geopolitik. Awal pekan ini, saham-saham sempat menguat menyusul berita mengenai kesepakatan damai awal antara AS dan Iran, namun harga-harga kembali turun setelah Presiden Donald Trump mengklarifikasi bahwa perjanjian tersebut belum final dan memperingatkan bahwa konflik dapat berlanjut.

Berlawanan dengan kelesuan pasar ekuitas, data ekonomi domestik menunjukkan adanya kekuatan mendasar. Penjualan ritel AS pada bulan Mei meningkat lebih tinggi dari perkiraan, didorong oleh tingginya pengeluaran konsumen untuk otomotif, meskipun rumah tangga harus menghadapi kenyataan kenaikan harga bensin.

Pergerakan Saham Individu

Dalam berita korporasi, saham CME Group merosot menyusul pengumuman bahwa CEO Terry Duffy akan mengundurkan diri pada 1 Maret untuk bertransisi ke peran ketua eksekutif. Di sisi lain, saham Allbirds melonjak setelah perusahaan melakukan rebranding menjadi "Smartbird", yang menandakan peralihan dari bisnis alas kaki menjadi entitas yang berfokus pada AI, diperkuat dengan penunjukan mantan eksekutif Amazon, Nadia Carlsten, sebagai CEO.

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