Wall Street Holds Steady as Investors Await Fed Decision and Iran Deal News

US stock markets traded within a narrow range on Wednesday as global investors adopted a "wait-and-see" approach ahead of the Federal Reserve's crucial policy announcement. While technology stocks provided some upward momentum, the broader market remained cautious amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and central bank uncertainty.

Fed Policy Decision Takes Center Stage

The primary driver for market volatility remains the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. While traders widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged for now, the focus is on the commentary regarding future easing cycles. Treasury yields remained largely stable as the market digested the possibility of a cautious stance by the Fed.

Despite political pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs, economists suggest the Fed will prioritize data-driven decisions. Preston Caldwell, chief US economist at Morningstar, noted that while inflation is expected to fall as energy price shocks recede, significant rate cuts may not materialize immediately. He projected that the Fed might not resume cutting rates until 2027, citing current wage and rent growth trends.

Oil Prices Subside on Iran Diplomacy Hopes

A significant relief for global markets has been the cooling of crude oil prices. Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded around $79.43 per barrel, following a sharp decline of over 5% on Tuesday. The US benchmark crude also saw a slight rise to $76.65 per barrel.

This downward trend is driven by optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement. Reports suggest a tentative deal could be signed in Switzerland this Friday, which may allow Iran to resume oil exports and provide potential sanctions relief. However, HSBC economists warned that normalizing oil flows will not be instantaneous. They cited significant hurdles, including mine clearance, the reinstatement of insurance, and the logistical challenges of repositioning ships and restarting idled production fields.

Sector Performance: Tech Rebounds and Earnings Surprises

Meskipun lingkungan makro yang berhati-hati, sektor-sektor tertentu menunjukkan ketahanan. Nasdaq Composite naik 0,5%, didorong oleh pemulihan pada saham-saham teknologi dan yang terkait dengan kecerdasan buatan. Perusahaan semikonduktor mengalami pemulihan yang signifikan; Micron Technology naik 3,5% setelah penurunan tajam sebesar 6% pada hari sebelumnya, sementara Intel naik 3,1%.

Di sektor barang konsumsi diskresioner, produsen furnitur La-Z-Boy muncul sebagai penampil yang menonjol, dengan sahamnya melonjak lebih dari 16% menyusul laporan laba yang melampaui ekspektasi analis.

Sentimen Pasar Global

Suasana hati yang berhati-hati di AS kontras dengan aktivitas yang lebih bullish di Asia. Nikkei 225 Jepang dan Kospi Korea Selatan keduanya menyentuh rekor tertinggi, dengan Kospi naik 1,6% yang dipimpin oleh saham-saham teknologi. Di Eropa, pasar tetap relatif datar, dengan FTSE 100 Inggris dan DAX Jerman mengalami sedikit pergerakan, sementara CAC 40 Prancis mencatat kenaikan moderat sebesar 0,2%.

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