Rupee Settles at 94.60 Against US Dollar, Ending Two-Day Rally

The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, settling 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar and breaking a recent streak of gains. Despite positive global developments, domestic equity outflows played a decisive role in capping the currency's recovery.

Market Volatility and Trading Range

After two sessions of significant strength—gaining 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday—the rupee struggled to maintain momentum. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the currency opened at 94.69 against the greenback. Throughout the session, it fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before eventually settling at 94.60, compared to the previous close of 94.58.

While the dollar index saw a marginal dip to 99.61, indicating slight weakness in the US currency against a basket of major currencies, the rupee's progress was hindered by local market dynamics.

Impact of Geopolitical De-escalation and Crude Oil

A primary driver of market optimism remains the easing of tensions in West Asia. The expected peace agreement between the United States and Iran, with US Vice President JD Vance set to lead the delegation for the formal signing in Switzerland this Friday, has provided a significant cushion for the rupee.

This diplomatic progress is anticipated to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy corridor. Consequently, Brent crude prices saw a decline of 1.68 per cent, trading at $81.77 per barrel. For an economy like India, which imports approximately 90 per cent of its oil requirements, lower crude prices act as a crucial tailwind for the domestic currency.

FII Outflows Cap Gains

The main headwind for the rupee on Tuesday was the continued selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Despite domestic equity benchmarks closing higher—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to 23,989.15—FIIs remained net sellers. According to exchange data, these investors offloaded equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session, creating downward pressure on the rupee.

Prospettive degli esperti e livelli di supporto

Gli analisti di mercato mantengono una visione costruttiva sulla traiettoria della rupia nel breve termine, prevedendo che si muoverà all'interno di un corridoio definito. Anuj Choudhary di Mirae Asset ShareKhan suggerisce un intervallo di trading per il prezzo spot USD-INR tra 94,10 e 94,90.

Aggiungendo ulteriore contesto tecnico, Dilip Parmar di HDFC Securities ha osservato che l'USD-INR probabilmente manterrà una tendenza al ribasso, con i livelli spot che gravitano verso la soglia di 94,10. D'altro canto, 95,20 è identificato come un livello di resistenza chiave che potrebbe limitare eventuali movimenti correttivi significativi verso l'alto.

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