Rupee Settles at 94.60 Against US Dollar, Ending Two-Day Rally

The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, settling 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar and breaking a recent streak of gains. Despite positive global developments, domestic equity outflows played a decisive role in capping the currency's recovery.

Market Volatility and Trading Range

After two sessions of significant strength—gaining 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday—the rupee struggled to maintain momentum. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the currency opened at 94.69 against the greenback. Throughout the session, it fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before eventually settling at 94.60, compared to the previous close of 94.58.

While the dollar index saw a marginal dip to 99.61, indicating slight weakness in the US currency against a basket of major currencies, the rupee's progress was hindered by local market dynamics.

Impact of Geopolitical De-escalation and Crude Oil

A primary driver of market optimism remains the easing of tensions in West Asia. The expected peace agreement between the United States and Iran, with US Vice President JD Vance set to lead the delegation for the formal signing in Switzerland this Friday, has provided a significant cushion for the rupee.

This diplomatic progress is anticipated to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy corridor. Consequently, Brent crude prices saw a decline of 1.68 per cent, trading at $81.77 per barrel. For an economy like India, which imports approximately 90 per cent of its oil requirements, lower crude prices act as a crucial tailwind for the domestic currency.

FII Outflows Cap Gains

The main headwind for the rupee on Tuesday was the continued selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Despite domestic equity benchmarks closing higher—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to 23,989.15—FIIs remained net sellers. According to exchange data, these investors offloaded equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session, creating downward pressure on the rupee.

Прогнозы экспертов и уровни поддержки

Рыночные аналитики сохраняют позитивный взгляд на краткосрочную траекторию рупии, ожидая, что она будет торговаться в определенном коридоре. Анудж Чоудхари из Mirae Asset ShareKhan предполагает торговый диапазон для спот-курса USD-INR между 94,10 и 94,90.

Добавляя технический контекст, Дилип Пармар из HDFC Securities отметил, что USD-INR, вероятно, сохранит тенденцию к снижению, при этом спот-уровни будут стремиться к отметке 94,10. С другой стороны, уровень 95,20 определен как ключевой уровень сопротивления, который может ограничить любые значительные коррекционные движения вверх.

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