Rupee Settles at 94.60 Against US Dollar, Ending Two-Day Rally

The Indian rupee faced a slight setback on Tuesday, settling 2 paise lower at 94.60 against the US dollar and breaking a recent streak of gains. Despite positive global developments, domestic equity outflows played a decisive role in capping the currency's recovery.

Market Volatility and Trading Range

After two sessions of significant strength—gaining 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday—the rupee struggled to maintain momentum. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the currency opened at 94.69 against the greenback. Throughout the session, it fluctuated within a range of 94.48 to 94.71 before eventually settling at 94.60, compared to the previous close of 94.58.

While the dollar index saw a marginal dip to 99.61, indicating slight weakness in the US currency against a basket of major currencies, the rupee's progress was hindered by local market dynamics.

Impact of Geopolitical De-escalation and Crude Oil

A primary driver of market optimism remains the easing of tensions in West Asia. The expected peace agreement between the United States and Iran, with US Vice President JD Vance set to lead the delegation for the formal signing in Switzerland this Friday, has provided a significant cushion for the rupee.

This diplomatic progress is anticipated to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy corridor. Consequently, Brent crude prices saw a decline of 1.68 per cent, trading at $81.77 per barrel. For an economy like India, which imports approximately 90 per cent of its oil requirements, lower crude prices act as a crucial tailwind for the domestic currency.

FII Outflows Cap Gains

The main headwind for the rupee on Tuesday was the continued selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Despite domestic equity benchmarks closing higher—with the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to 23,989.15—FIIs remained net sellers. According to exchange data, these investors offloaded equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session, creating downward pressure on the rupee.

Nhận định của chuyên gia và các mức hỗ trợ

Các nhà phân tích thị trường duy trì quan điểm tích cực về quỹ đạo ngắn hạn của đồng rupee, dự báo đồng tiền này sẽ giao dịch trong một biên độ xác định. Anuj Choudhary từ Mirae Asset ShareKhan gợi ý phạm vi giao dịch cho giá giao ngay USD-INR là trong khoảng từ 94.10 đến 94.90.

Bổ sung thêm về bối cảnh kỹ thuật, Dilip Parmar từ HDFC Securities lưu ý rằng USD-INR có khả năng duy trì xu hướng giảm, với các mức giá giao ngay hướng về mốc 94.10. Mặt khác, 95.20 được xác định là mức kháng cự chính, có thể kìm hãm bất kỳ đợt điều chỉnh tăng đáng kể nào.

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