NSE IPO: Exchange Flags Major Regulatory, Tech, and AI Risks in DRHP

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has filed its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) for a massive ₹30,000 crore IPO, marking a significant milestone for the Indian capital markets. However, the filing provides a candid look at the substantial regulatory, technological, and concentration risks that could impact its future financial performance.

High Dependence on Derivatives Trading

A critical takeaway from the DRHP is the exchange's heavy reliance on a single segment for its income. In FY26, transaction charges accounted for 78.65% of NSE's operating revenue, with options trading alone contributing a staggering 60.22% of total revenue from operations.

This concentration poses a significant risk, especially as the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) continues to tighten the equity derivatives framework. NSE noted that recent regulatory measures have already led to a moderation in trading activity across both cash and derivatives segments, resulting in lower trading revenues during the fiscal year.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Settlement Costs

The exchange’s history with the market regulator remains a prominent risk factor. NSE disclosed that it has faced various show-cause notices, warning letters, and deficiency letters regarding operational, governance, and compliance matters.

The financial impact of these regulatory hurdles is substantial. NSE reported paying over ₹643 crore in October 2024 regarding its Trading Access Point (TAP) architecture and network connectivity. Additionally, a settlement of ₹40.35 crore was paid in July 2025 following regulatory inspections. Ongoing legal proceedings related to co-location and dark fibre issues continue to pose potential reputational and financial threats.

Technology Failures and Cybersecurity Threats

As a fully electronic trading platform, NSE highlighted that technical glitches are a persistent operational risk. The exchange cited several past issues, including website outages and market data glitches. Notably, it recalled a February 2021 incident where technical failures forced a trading halt across all segments for more than five hours.

Keselamatan siber juga kekal sebagai kebimbangan utama. DRHP mendedahkan bahawa pada Mei 2025, laman web NSE telah menjadi sasaran serangan Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) yang besar, mencatatkan hampir 395 juta capaian dalam masa hanya 11 minit. Walaupun operasi tidak terjejas secara material, serangan tersebut telah menyebabkan kelembapan yang ketara dalam akses web.

Pedang Bermata Dua Kecerdasan Buatan

NSE telah mengenal pasti Kecerdasan Buatan (AI) dan Pembelajaran Mesin (ML) sebagai bidang risiko yang sedang muncul. Walaupun AI membantu dalam pengawasan dan pengurusan risiko, bursa tersebut memberi amaran bahawa algoritma yang cacat boleh menyebabkan output yang tidak tepat atau berat sebelah, yang mengakibatkan kerugian kewangan atau ketidakpatuhan.

Selain itu, peningkatan perdagangan algoritma yang dipacu AI boleh meningkatkan turun naik pasaran dan mewujudkan bentuk manipulasi pasaran baharu yang lebih sukar dikesan. Bursa tersebut juga menandakan "serangan siber berkuasa AI," seperti penyamaran menggunakan deepfake dan kebocoran data melalui alatan AI pihak ketiga, sebagai kerentanan baharu yang signifikan.

Struktur IPO dan Impak Pasaran

IPO yang akan datang dijangka menjadi yang terbesar dalam sejarah pasaran saham India, dianggarkan bernilai ₹30,000 crore. Terbitan tersebut akan distrukturkan sepenuhnya sebagai Tawaran untuk Jualan (Offer for Sale - OFS), melibatkan 14.89 crore saham, di mana pemegang saham sedia ada akan melupuskan kira-kira 6% daripada pegangan mereka. NSE telah pun menerima sijil tiada bantahan daripada SEBI, dengan sasaran penyenaraian ditetapkan sebelum 30 Januari 2027.

Ringkasan Utama

  • Pemusatan Hasil: NSE sangat bergantung kepada derivatif, dengan perdagangan opsyen sahaja menyumbang lebih daripada 60% daripada jumlah hasil operasi.
  • Beban Kawal Selia & Undang-undang: Bursa tersebut telah menghadapi kos penyelesaian yang signifikan, termasuk pembayaran ₹643 crore pada akhir 2024, dan terus berhadapan dengan urusan undang-undang yang belum selesai.
  • Risiko Teknologi yang Berkembang: Selain serangan siber tradisional, NSE menekankan turun naik pasaran yang dipacu AI dan ancaman keselamatan siber berkuasa AI sebagai risiko baharu yang kritikal.