Gold Price Prediction: Why Experts Recommend a 'Buy on Dips' Strategy

Gold prices on the MCX are showing early signs of a recovery following a period of steep corrective declines. As the metal attempts to establish a stable base, technical indicators suggest that the bearish momentum is easing, opening a window for strategic accumulation.

Technical Recovery and Price Action

The Gold August futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have begun showing signs of stabilization. After a sharp downward trend, prices have successfully formed a short-term base within the ₹1,46,400–₹1,46,600 zone.

On the 15-minute timeframe, gold has started forming "higher lows," a technical pattern that suggests buyers are stepping back into the market. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, notes that this rebound is being driven by a combination of bargain buying and short covering at lower price levels. For the recovery to remain intact, the market needs to sustain trading above the ₹1,46,900 mark.

Momentum Indicators Point to Bullish Shift

Several key technical indicators are aligning to support a potential upside move:

  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD has witnessed a bullish crossover from deeply negative territory. The rising histogram bars indicate that upward momentum is strengthening.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): After hitting oversold levels, the RSI has recovered toward the 43–45 zone. A move beyond the 50 mark would confirm a much stronger bullish outlook.
  • Moving Averages & Volume: Prices are currently attempting to breach the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cluster. Furthermore, volume profile analysis shows heavy trading activity concentrated between ₹1,46,700 and ₹1,47,000, identifying this as a critical demand zone and immediate support area.

Strategic Trading View: Buy on Dips

Given the current market structure, the outlook remains bullish as long as prices stay above the major support level of ₹1,46,400. Analysts suggest that instead of chasing the rally at peak prices, investors should look for entry points during minor intraday pullbacks.

ਇੰਟਰਾਡੇ ਟ੍ਰੇਡਰਾਂ ਲਈ, ਸਿਫਾਰਸ਼ ਕੀਤੀ ਗਈ ਐਂਟਰੀ ਜ਼ੋਨ ₹1,46,900 ਅਤੇ ₹1,47,100 ਦੇ ਵਿਚਕਾਰ ਹੈ। ਜੋਖਮ ਪ੍ਰਬੰਧਨ ਲਈ, ₹1,46,400 ਤੋਂ ਹੇਠਾਂ ਇੱਕ ਸਖ਼ਤ ਸਟੌਪ-ਲੌਸ ਬਣਾਈ ਰੱਖਣਾ ਚਾਹੀਦਾ ਹੈ। ਜੇਕਰ ਮੋਮੈਂਟਮ ਬਣਿਆ ਰਹਿੰਦਾ ਹੈ, ਤਾਂ ₹1,47,500 'ਤੇ ਤੁਰੰਤ ਰੇਸਿਸਟੈਂਸ ਦੀ ਉਮੀਦ ਹੈ, ਜਿਸਦਾ ਮੁੱਖ ਟਾਰਗੇਟ ₹1,47,750 ਹੋਵੇਗਾ।

ਮੁੱਖ ਨੁਕਤੇ

  • રિકવਰੀ ਪੈਟਰਨ: ਸੋਨਾ ਉੱਚੇ ਲੋਅ (higher lows) ਬਣਾ ਰਿਹਾ ਹੈ ਅਤੇ ₹1,46,400–₹1,46,600 ਸਪੋਰਟ ਜ਼ੋਨ ਦੇ ਨੇੜੇ ਸਥਿਰ ਹੋ ਰਿਹਾ ਹੈ, ਜੋ ਹਾਲ ਹੀ ਵਿੱਚ ਹੋਈ ਤੇਜ਼ ਗਿਰਾਵਟ ਦੇ ਖਤਮ ਹੋਣ ਦਾ ਸੰਕੇਤ ਦਿੰਦਾ ਹੈ।
  • ਬੁਲਿਸ਼ ਸੰਕੇਤ: ਇੱਕ ਬੁਲਿਸ਼ MACD ਕ੍ਰਾਸਓਵਰ ਅਤੇ ਸੁਧਰ ਰਿਹਾ RSI ਇਹ ਸੁਝਾਅ ਦਿੰਦੇ ਹਨ ਕਿ ਮੋਮੈਂਟਮ ਵਾਪਸ ਖਰੀਦਦਾਰਾਂ ਦੇ ਪੱਖ ਵਿੱਚ ਜਾ ਰਿਹਾ ਹੈ।
  • ਸਿਫਾਰਸ਼ ਕੀਤੀ ਗਈ ਰਣਨੀਤੀ: "buy on dips" ਪਹੁੰਚ ਦੀ ਸਲਾਹ ਦਿੱਤੀ ਜਾਂਦੀ ਹੈ, ਜਿਸਦਾ ਟਾਰਗੇਟ ₹1,47,750 ਹੋਵੇਗਾ, ਬਸ਼ਰਤੇ ਕਿ ਕੀਮਤ ₹1,46,400 ਦੇ ਮਹੱਤਵਪੂਰਨ ਸਪੋਰਟ ਤੋਂ ਉੱਪਰ ਰਹੇ।