Gold Price Prediction: Why Experts Recommend a 'Buy on Dips' Strategy

Gold prices on the MCX are showing early signs of a recovery following a period of steep corrective declines. As the metal attempts to establish a stable base, technical indicators suggest that the bearish momentum is easing, opening a window for strategic accumulation.

Technical Recovery and Price Action

The Gold August futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have begun showing signs of stabilization. After a sharp downward trend, prices have successfully formed a short-term base within the ₹1,46,400–₹1,46,600 zone.

On the 15-minute timeframe, gold has started forming "higher lows," a technical pattern that suggests buyers are stepping back into the market. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, notes that this rebound is being driven by a combination of bargain buying and short covering at lower price levels. For the recovery to remain intact, the market needs to sustain trading above the ₹1,46,900 mark.

Momentum Indicators Point to Bullish Shift

Several key technical indicators are aligning to support a potential upside move:

  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD has witnessed a bullish crossover from deeply negative territory. The rising histogram bars indicate that upward momentum is strengthening.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): After hitting oversold levels, the RSI has recovered toward the 43–45 zone. A move beyond the 50 mark would confirm a much stronger bullish outlook.
  • Moving Averages & Volume: Prices are currently attempting to breach the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cluster. Furthermore, volume profile analysis shows heavy trading activity concentrated between ₹1,46,700 and ₹1,47,000, identifying this as a critical demand zone and immediate support area.

Strategic Trading View: Buy on Dips

Given the current market structure, the outlook remains bullish as long as prices stay above the major support level of ₹1,46,400. Analysts suggest that instead of chasing the rally at peak prices, investors should look for entry points during minor intraday pullbacks.

עבור סוחרים יומיים, אזור הכניסה המומלץ נמצא בין ₹1,46,900 ל-₹1,47,100. לניהול סיכונים, יש להקפיד על סטופ-לוס קשיח מתחת ל-₹1,46,400. אם המומנטום יישמר, ההתנגדות המיידית צפויה להיות ב-₹1,47,500, עם יעד מרכזי של ₹1,47,750.

נקודות מפתח

  • תבנית התאוששות: הזהב יוצר שפלים גבוהים יותר ומתייצב ליד אזור התמיכה של ₹1,46,400–₹1,46,600, מה שמאותת על סיום הירידה החדה האחרונה.
  • אינדיקטורים שוריים: חציית MACD שורית והתאוששות של ה-RSI מצביעים על כך שהמומנטום חוזר לטובת הקונים.
  • אסטרטגיה מומלצת: מומלץ לנקוט בגישת "קנייה בירידות" (buy on dips), עם יעד של ₹1,47,750, בתנאי שהמחיר נשאר מעל רמת התמיכה הקריטית של ₹1,46,400.