受印美贸易协议乐观情绪推动，卢比反弹 20 派司至 94.20
周五，印度卢比大幅回升，在早盘交易中兑美元上涨 20 派司，达到 94.20。此次反弹发生在一段波动期之后，此前受印度与美国双边贸易关系重燃乐观情绪的推动，该货币近期曾触及历史收盘低点。
印美贸易谈判带来的提振
卢比走强的主要催化剂是新德里与华盛顿之间贸易讨论的重新加速。在 G7 峰会期间，总理纳伦德拉·莫迪与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普举行会晤后，两国领导人均已指示谈判代表加快拟议贸易协议的工作进度。
外交秘书维克拉姆·米斯里（Vikram Misri）证实，中期贸易协定已取得实质性进展。为了保持这一势头，美国贸易代表詹米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）计划于下周访问印度。这些高层外交信号为市场情绪提供了急需的提振，预示着此前面临压力的双边关系正在趋于稳定。
宏观经济顺风：原油与美元流入
除外交因素外，技术性市场因素也为本国货币提供了缓冲。全球能源价格走软支撑了卢比的回升，布伦特原油期货下跌 0.85%，收于每桶 79.17 美元。较低的油价通常会降低印度的进口支出，从而缓解经常账户赤字的压力，并支撑新兴市场货币。
此外，市场参与者观察到外资流入情况正在改善。尽管美元指数小幅上涨 0.08% 至 100.92，但流入印度市场的美元有助于抵消美元在全球范围内的强势表现。
印度储备银行在汇率管理中的战略作用
随着卢比走强，分析人士指出，印度储备银行（RBI）正在积极管理波动。据 CR Forex Advisors 董事总经理 Amit Pabari 表示，央行可能正在利用近期流入的美元来重建外汇储备，并管理其庞大的美元远期头寸，据估计该头寸约为 1100 亿美元。
Market intelligence suggests the RBI may have already purchased between USD 3 billion to USD 5 billion over the last two sessions. This intervention is viewed not as a sign of distress, but as a strategic move to take advantage of favorable market conditions. Such proactive management by the central bank is expected to make the Rupee's appreciation move stronger yet more gradual.
Divergence Between Currency and Equities
Interestingly, the strength in the currency market has not translated to the domestic equity markets. In early trade, the Sensex fell by 786.58 points to 76,624.90, while the Nifty slipped 210.95 points to 23,959.80. This divergence is partly attributed to Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remaining net sellers, having offloaded equities worth Rs 1,025.20 crore on Thursday.
Key Takeaways
- Trade Diplomacy: Optimism surrounding an expedited India-US interim trade pact is the main driver behind the Rupee's 20-paise recovery.
- Macro Support: Lower Brent crude prices ($79.17 per barrel) and improved foreign inflows are providing essential support to the local currency.
- RBI Intervention: The RBI is expected to use incoming dollar flows to rebuild forex reserves and manage its USD 110 billion forward dollar book.