受印美贸易协议预期推动，卢比反弹 20 派司至 94.20
印度卢比在周五大幅回升，在早盘交易中兑美元上涨 20 派司，达到 94.20。在上一交易日卢比收于历史最低水平后，此次反弹提供了重要的缓解。
印美贸易谈判引发乐观情绪
卢比突然走强的核心驱动力是印美贸易讨论重新焕发的动力。在总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）于 G7 峰会期间举行会晤后，贸易已成为双边关系的核心支柱。
外交秘书维克拉姆·米斯里（Vikram Misri）证实，两国领导人已指示谈判代表加快拟议中的临时贸易协定的工作。米斯里在强调目前进展的同时指出，美国贸易代表詹米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）计划于下周访问印度，以进一步推动谈判。这一外交推动显著提振了投资者对印度贸易环境稳定性的信心。
宏观经济驱动因素：原油与美元流入
除了地缘政治发展外，若干宏观经济因素也为本币提供了助力。布伦特原油期货下跌 0.85% 至每桶 79.17 美元，有助于缓解印度对进口账单的担忧，从而支撑了卢比等新兴市场货币。此外，市场参与者指出，外资流入的改善是此次复苏的关键因素。
尽管全球美元指数小幅上涨 0.08% 至 100.92，但由于局部走强和好于预期的贸易前景，本币成功实现了与这一趋势的脱钩。
印度储备银行在外汇管理中的战略作用
市场分析师正密切关注印度储备银行（RBI）对当前美元流入的回应。据 CR Forex Advisors 董事总经理 Amit Pabari 表示，预计央行将利用这些流入的美元来重建其外汇储备，并管理其庞大的远期美元头寸，据估计该头寸约为 1100 亿美元。
There are indications that the RBI may have already purchased USD 3–5 billion over the last two sessions. While such interventions by the central bank can naturally moderate the pace of rupee appreciation, analysts view this as a strategic move to take advantage of favorable market conditions rather than a sign of economic distress.
Divergence Between Currency and Equity Markets
Interestingly, the rupee's strength did not translate into gains for the domestic stock market. In a notable divergence, the Sensex fell 786.58 points to 76,624.90, while the Nifty slipped 210.95 points to 23,959.80 in early trade. This bearish sentiment in equities was partly attributed to Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remaining net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 1,025.20 crore on Thursday.
Key Takeaways
- Trade Catalyst: Renewed India-US trade pact negotiations and the upcoming visit of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have bolstered rupee sentiment.
- Macro Support: Lower Brent crude prices ($79.17 per barrel) and improved foreign inflows helped the rupee recover from its record lows.
- RBI Intervention: The central bank is likely utilizing dollar inflows to rebuild forex reserves and manage its substantial USD 110 billion forward dollar book.