受印美贸易乐观情绪推动，卢比回升20派索至94.20
周五早盘交易中，印度卢比大幅回升，兑美元上涨20派索，达到94.20。此次反弹发生在一段波动期之后，此前该本币曾一度触及历史收盘低点。
印美贸易谈判带来的乐观情绪
卢比突然走强的核心驱动力是新德里与华盛顿之间贸易讨论的重新升温。在G7峰会期间，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普举行了高层会晤，两国领导人均已指示谈判代表加快推进拟议中的贸易协定。
外交秘书维克拉姆·米斯里（Vikram Misri）证实，临时贸易协定的谈判已取得重大进展。为了保持这一势头，美国贸易代表詹米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）计划于下周访问印度进行进一步谈判。这种重建双边关系的外交努力增强了市场参与者的信心，为本国货币提供了急需的缓冲。
外部利好：原油与外资流入
除了地缘政治发展外，更广泛的宏观经济因素也在为卢比提供支撑。全球能源价格下跌构成了显著的利好因素；布伦特原油期货下跌0.85%，收于每桶79.17美元。原油价格下降通常会降低印度的进口支出，从而缓解经常账户赤字的压力。
此外，外资流入的改善以及相对稳定的美元指数（仅微涨0.08%至100.92）也有助于稳定外汇市场。交易员指出，尽管美元在全球范围内依然坚挺，但油价走软与积极贸易情绪的特定结合，改变了卢比的走势。
印度储备银行在汇率管理中的战略作用
市场分析人士认为，印度储备银行（RBI）正在积极管理近期流入的美元，以增强国家储备。据CR Forex Advisors董事总经理Amit Pabari称，央行在过去两个交易日中可能已经购入了30亿至50亿美元。
The RBI's strategy appears to be two-fold: rebuilding foreign exchange reserves and gradually reducing its large forward dollar book, which is estimated to be around USD 110 billion. While such central bank interventions can prevent rapid appreciation of the rupee, they ultimately lead to a more stable and gradual strengthening of the currency, which is beneficial for long-term economic predictability.
Divergence Between Currency and Equity Markets
Interestingly, the rupee's recovery did not translate into a bullish sentiment for domestic equities. While the currency gained, the Sensex fell 786.58 points to 76,624.90, and the Nifty slipped 210.95 points to 23,959.80 in early trade. This divergence is largely attributed to continued selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who offloaded equities worth Rs 1,025.20 crore on Thursday.
Key Takeaways
- Trade Catalysts: Anticipation of a swift India-US interim trade deal following talks between PM Modi and President Trump is driving currency appreciation.
- Macroeconomic Support: Falling Brent crude prices ($79.17 per barrel) and improving foreign inflows are providing critical support to the rupee.
- RBI Intervention: The Reserve Bank of India is expected to utilize dollar inflows to rebuild forex reserves and manage its USD 110 billion forward dollar book.