受印美贸易乐观情绪推动，卢比回升20派索至94.20
周五，印度卢比大幅回升，在早盘交易中兑美元上涨20派索，达到94.20。在此前的波动期内，该货币曾一度收于历史最低水平，此次反弹标志着其重回升势。
催化剂：印美贸易势头重燃
卢比突然走强的主要驱动力是市场对印美之间潜在贸易协定日益增长的乐观情绪。在G7峰会期间，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普举行了高层会晤，贸易已成为双边讨论的核心支柱。
外交秘书维克拉姆·米斯里（Vikram Misri）证实，两国领导人已指示谈判代表加快拟议中的临时贸易协定的工作进度。随着美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）计划于下周访问印度，这一势头预计将进一步加强。这些进展显著提振了市场情绪，为本国货币提供了急需的支撑。
宏观经济助力：原油与外资流入
除了地缘政治发展外，若干宏观经济因素也在支撑卢比的上行轨迹。一个显著的贡献因素是全球能源价格的走软；布伦特原油期货下跌0.85%至每桶79.17美元，降低了印度的进口成本，并缓解了经常项目赤字的压力。
此外，市场参与者注意到外资流入情况正在改善。尽管全球美元指数小幅上涨0.08%至100.92，但原油价格下跌与贸易前景乐观的结合，为卢比等新兴市场货币创造了有利环境。
印度储备银行在汇率管理中的战略作用
随着卢比走强，市场分析师正密切关注印度储备银行（RBI）的干预策略。据 CR Forex Advisors 董事总经理 Amit Pabari 表示，RBI 可能正在利用流入的美元来重建外汇储备，并管理其庞大的远期美元头寸，据估计该头寸约为1100亿美元。
Reports suggest the central bank may have already purchased USD 3–5 billion over the last two sessions. Experts clarify that this intervention is not a signal of distress but a strategic move to take advantage of favorable market conditions. Such systematic buying by the RBI is expected to ensure that any rupee appreciation remains stable and gradual rather than volatile.
Divergence in Equity Markets
Despite the positive turn in the currency market, domestic equity indices faced downward pressure. The Sensex dropped 786.58 points to 76,624.90, while the Nifty slipped 210.95 points to 23,959.80 in early trading. This divergence was partly fueled by continued selling pressure from foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who offloaded equities worth Rs 1,025.20 crore on Thursday.
Key Takeaways
- Trade Optimism: Renewed momentum in India-US trade negotiations and the upcoming visit of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are driving rupee recovery.
- Economic Support: Softer Brent crude prices ($79.17/barrel) and improving foreign inflows are providing fundamental support to the currency.
- RBI Intervention: The central bank is strategically utilizing dollar inflows to rebuild forex reserves and manage its USD 110 billion forward book.