Brent Crude Rises to $79.43 Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Peace Deal

Global oil markets saw a cautious rebound on Wednesday as investors attempted to gauge the long-term stability of a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement. While prices clawed back some recent losses, significant volatility remains as traders weigh the possibility of reopened shipping routes against ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Traders Weigh the Impact of the US-Iran Memorandum

Brent crude futures climbed 47 cents, or 0.6%, to reach $79.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 48 cents to $76.53. This recovery follows a sharp decline on Tuesday, where both benchmarks plummeted approximately 5% to three-month lows. The previous sell-off was driven by optimism that a U.S.-Iran deal would allow oil flows to resume through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

The interim peace deal, outlined via a memorandum of understanding, extends the existing ceasefire by 60 days to facilitate permanent truce negotiations. Key components of the deal include the United States lifting its blockade on Iranian ports and Tehran allowing oil tanker traffic through the Strait, which has been blocked since U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28. While the deal aims to rule out nuclear capabilities for Tehran and allow Iran to sell oil, industry experts warn that restoring pre-war production and refining levels could take months or even years.

Geopolitical Friction and Regional Instability

Despite the diplomatic progress, significant risks to oil price stability remain. Israel has distanced itself from both the April ceasefire and the latest U.S.-Iran agreement, creating a layer of uncertainty regarding the truce's durability. Tensions escalated on Tuesday when Israeli drone strikes in southern Lebanon resulted in at least four deaths, prompting a rare public rebuke of military tactics from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, noted that while markets retreated on expectations of the Strait's reopening, traders are holding off on aggressive positions until more details emerge. He expects WTI to remain volatile, likely trading within a $10 range around the $80 per barrel mark.

Demand Signals and US Inventory Draws

On the demand side, data from China has added a bearish undertone to the market. China's crude oil throughput in May fell 9.1% year-on-year, hitting its lowest level in nearly four years. This suggests that Chinese refiners are increasingly relying on existing stockpiles rather than new imports.

Conversely, supply data from the United States provided a bullish counter-signal. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude stocks saw a massive draw of 8.3 million barrels for the week ending June 12. This significantly exceeded the market expectation of a 4.6 million barrel decrease, indicating tighter immediate supply in the American market.

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