Rupee Snaps Two-Day Rally to Settle Lower at 94.60 Against US Dollar

The Indian rupee ended its two-session winning streak on Tuesday, slipping slightly against the US dollar despite a backdrop of easing global oil prices. While geopolitical optimism provided some support, domestic equity outflows prevented the currency from maintaining its recent momentum.

Market Movement and Intra-day Volatility

After gaining significant ground over the previous two sessions—rising 67 paise on Friday and 60 paise on Monday—the rupee faced resistance on Tuesday. The domestic currency opened at 94.69 against the greenback and witnessed intra-day volatility, trading within a range of 94.48 to 94.71. Ultimately, it settled at 94.60, a minor decline of 2 paise compared to the previous close of 94.58.

The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of six major global currencies, remained marginally lower at 99.61, suggesting a relatively stable global environment for emerging market currencies.

Geopolitical Optimism vs. FII Outflows

The rupee received significant support from de-escalating tensions in West Asia. A US-Iran peace framework agreement, with formal signing expected in Switzerland this Friday led by US Vice President JD Vance, has bolstered market sentiment. This development is expected to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route.

However, this positive sentiment was countered by domestic capital flows. Despite the BSE Sensex rising 544.15 points to 76,808.48 and the NSE Nifty gaining 135.25 points to 23,989.15, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers. FIIs offloaded equities worth ₹749.18 crore during the session, a factor that capped the rupee's potential gains.

Impact of Easing Crude Oil Prices

For an economy like India, which imports nearly 90% of its oil requirements, the recent dip in crude oil prices serves as a vital tailwind. Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded 1.68% lower at $81.77 per barrel in futures trade. Analysts noted that lower oil prices generally support the rupee by reducing the country's import bill and narrowing the current account deficit.

Prognozy analityków i poziomy oporu

Pomimo niewielkiego spadku, eksperci rynkowi utrzymują pozytywne nastawienie do krótkoterminowej trajektorii rupii. Analitycy z Mirae Asset ShareKhan spodziewają się, że cena spot USD-INR będzie oscylować w przedziale od 94,10 do 94,90.

Ponadto analitycy badawczy z HDFC Securities sugerują tendencję spadkową dla tej pary, przy czym poziomy spot prawdopodobnie będą dążyć do 94,10. Po stronie wzrostowej poziom 95,20 został zidentyfikowany jako kluczowy krótkoterminowy poziom oporu, który może ograniczyć wszelkie ruchy korygujące siły waluty.

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