霍尔木兹海峡的不确定性：评估其对印度的影响

尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近宣布将解除海军封锁并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，但海上交通仍然受到显著限制。虽然白宫暗示局势正在回归常态，但船舶跟踪数据显示，通过这一全球重要咽喉要道的航行正处于谨慎且碎片化的恢复阶段。

外交声明与海上现实之间的差距

2026年6月15日，华盛顿的外交乐观情绪与商业船舶的实际移动之间出现了脱节。尽管特朗普总统表示船只已在阿曼附近移动，但实时数据显示，大部分海上交通仍聚集在伊朗的凯什姆岛（Qeshm）和拉拉克岛（Larak）附近。《劳氏日报》（Lloyd’s List）估计，约有600艘船只仍滞留在海峡以西，不敢进入该水道。

这种不透明性源于过境安排协议的模糊性。虽然美国声称自5月以来已协助了约200艘商业船舶，但像Bimco这样的行业机构已发出警告，称安全形势依然动荡。据报道，船东们正在等待海峡中心恢复既定的分道通航制（traffic separation schemes），而不是在当前不确定的环境中航行。此外，尽管德黑兰方面表示不会征收过境费，但其打算收取用于航行和环境保护的海事服务费——这一细微差别为国际航运公司增加了监管复杂性。

印度航运与保险缓冲

对于印度而言，海上紧张局势对其商船队和保险业都产生了直接影响。自冲突加剧以来，已有15艘前往印度的船只成功通过了该海峡，其中包括预计将于6月18日抵达达黑杰（Dahej）的Petronet LNG公司的Disha号。然而，延误带来的代价显而易见，目前有13艘悬挂印度国旗的船舶、载有325名海员滞留在该水道以西。

A significant development in India's strategic response has been the mitigation of financial volatility through the "Bharat Maritime Pool." Marine cargo war-risk insurance costs, which had spiked to 0.20% of the insured value, have reportedly eased to approximately 0.10%. This stabilization, supported by guidance from GIC Re, provides a much-needed buffer for Indian shipowners and importers facing high-risk transit zones.

Managing the Fertilizer Crisis for the Kharif Season

A critical dimension of this maritime bottleneck is India’s food security. The disruption threatens the supply chain for the upcoming Kharif season, with sixteen fertilizer-laden vessels currently awaiting passage. This fleet includes eight urea carriers, four DAP ships, three sulphur carriers, and one ammonia vessel.

To prevent a domestic crisis, the Indian government has been actively diversifying its supply chains. While the vessels are stuck, approximately 40 lakh tonnes of fertilizer have already reached Indian ports via alternative routes. Additionally, the government expects to import 25 lakh tonnes of urea, DAP, and NPK this month to supplement a domestic production capacity of nearly 124 lakh tonnes.

What It Means for India