Wall Street Holds Steady Amid Fed Decision and Iran Deal Optimism

US stock markets are trading within a narrow range as global investors pause to await the Federal Reserve's pivotal policy decision. While major indices show modest movement, sentiment is being bolstered by falling oil prices and renewed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran.

Fed Policy Decision Takes Center Stage

The primary driver for market volatility remains the outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. Currently, traders are widely anticipating that the central bank will maintain the status quo and leave interest rates unchanged. This cautious stance comes despite public pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs.

Economists are closely monitoring inflation indicators. Preston Caldwell, chief US economist at Morningstar, noted that weak wage and rent growth suggest inflation could fall sharply once energy price shocks recede. While rate cuts are on the horizon, Morningstar's outlook suggests the Fed may not resume cutting rates until 2027, maintaining a cautious approach through 2026.

Oil Prices Soften on Geopolitical Optimism

Energy markets have seen a significant reprieve, with Brent crude trading around $79.43 a barrel after a massive 5% tumble on Tuesday. The US benchmark crude also saw a slight rise to $76.65. This cooling of prices is largely attributed to optimism regarding a potential US-Iran peace agreement, which could be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday.

If a deal is reached, it may include provisions allowing Iran to resume oil exports and provide potential sanctions relief. However, experts at HSBC caution that "normalizing flows will take time." They identified several operational hurdles, including mine clearance, the reinstatement of insurance, emptying excess Gulf oil storage, and restarting idled production fields.

Tech Recovery and Corporate Earnings Drive Gains

Despite the cautious macro environment, specific sectors are providing upward momentum. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%, fueled by a rebound in technology and artificial intelligence-linked stocks. Semiconductor companies saw a notable recovery; Micron Technology gained 3.5% following a sharp previous decline, while Intel rose 3.1%.

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全球市场表现

美国市场的谨慎情绪也反映在欧洲市场，英国富时 100 指数和德国 DAX 指数基本持平，而法国 CAC 40 指数微涨 0.2%。在亚洲，市场前景则更为乐观；受日本强劲的出口数据和韩国科技股走强的推动，日本日经 225 指数和韩国 Kospi 指数均触及历史新高。

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