Gold and Silver Prices Crash as US Fed Signals Potential Rate Hikes
Precious metal prices witnessed a sharp correction on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) this Thursday, triggered by hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve. As traders brace for possible interest rate hikes later this year, both gold and silver have seen significant intraday declines.
The Fed Factor: Why Precious Metals Are Retreating
The primary driver behind the current market volatility is the stance of the US Federal Reserve. While the Fed chose to keep the policy rate unchanged in its latest meeting—maintaining the current range of 3.50%-3.75%—the underlying projections have spooked investors. According to recent data, nine out of the 19 US policymakers now believe a rate hike will be necessary before the end of the year.
In the world of commodities, rising interest rates generally exert downward pressure on gold. When the Fed raises rates, yields on interest-bearing assets like bonds and deposits increase, offering investors better returns elsewhere. This makes non-yielding assets like gold relatively less attractive, leading to the sell-off we are currently witnessing.
MCX Market Snapshot: Sharp Declines in Gold and Silver
The domestic impact on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) has been substantial. Silver futures for July 2026 delivery saw a massive drop of Rs 6,298, or 2.5%, settling at Rs 2,45,509 per kg. Gold futures for August 2026 delivery were not spared either, declining by Rs 1,600 to reach Rs 1,52,304 per 10 grams.
Interestingly, this downward trend occurred despite a separate bullish signal: easing oil prices following a US-Iran interim agreement. Usually, lower oil prices reduce inflation concerns, which can boost precious metal demand, but the "Fed fear" proved to be a much stronger market force this session.
Expert Technical Outlook and Trading Strategy
Market analysts suggest that while the immediate trend is bearish, specific support levels are emerging. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart provides the following technical levels for traders:
Untuk Emas:
- Level Support: Rs 1,52,800 – Rs 1,52,000
- Level Resistance: Rs 1,54,400 – Rs 1,55,500
- Strategi: Setelah mencapai level tertinggi baru di Rs 1,54,134, investor disarankan untuk mengambil keuntungan pada posisi long yang ada dan menunggu peluang entri baru di sekitar rentang Rs 1,51,100–1,50,000.
Untuk Perak:
- Level Support: Rs 2,48,000 – Rs 2,44,400
- Level Resistance: Rs 2,55,000 – Rs 2,58,800
- Strategi: Cari peluang beli di rentang Rs 2,48,800–2,46,000, dengan menjaga stop loss yang ketat di bawah Rs 2,43,300.
Poin Penting
- Pengaruh Fed: Prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS membuat emas dan perak menjadi kurang menarik dibandingkan dengan aset yang menghasilkan bunga.
- Volatilitas Signifikan: Perak mengalami penurunan tajam sebesar 2,5% di MCX, sementara emas turun sebesar Rs 1,600 per 10 gram.
- Saran Perdagangan: Para ahli menyarankan untuk mengambil keuntungan pada kepemilikan saat ini dan menunggu koreksi harga menuju level support yang telah ditetapkan sebelum melakukan entri baru.