G7 Unveils Major Strategy to Break China’s Critical Mineral Dominance

G7 leaders have announced a coordinated global strategy to reduce their dependence on China for critical minerals essential to the future of technology. By leveraging international partnerships and new supply chain mechanisms, the group aims to secure the raw materials necessary for defense, artificial intelligence, and the green energy transition.

Targets for Diversification and Supply Chain Security

A primary goal of the new G7 mandate is to drastically reduce reliance on any single supplier outside the group. For rare earth elements and permanent magnets, leaders have set a specific target to bring reliance below 60% by 2030, with a long-term objective of reaching 50% as soon as possible.

This move follows recent disruptions caused by China’s export restrictions on permanent magnets, which highlighted the vulnerability of Western industries. To prevent such shocks, the G7 will establish "harmonised, interoperable mechanisms" for supply chains. The initiative will begin with pilot projects focusing on two key minerals: lithium and nickel. Following these pilots, the group intends to add five additional minerals to the framework every year, with a heavy emphasis on rare earth elements.

The Role of IEA and New Coordination Platforms

To ensure market stability, the G7 will establish a dedicated platform to coordinate policy, facilitate data sharing, and respond to sudden supply disruptions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has been tapped to play a vital role in this ecosystem, providing market monitoring and issuing "early warnings" regarding market distortions.

To protect against future volatility, the G7 is also prioritizing stockpiling and recycling. The United States has already moved forward with "Project Vault," a $12 billion critical minerals reserve, while the European Union is shortlisting tungsten, rare earths, and gallium for its own joint stockpile. Furthermore, the group aims for G7 recycling systems to account for a significant portion of annual mineral consumption by 2030.

The Massive Investment Gap and Challenges

尽管目标雄心勃勃，但仍面临重大障碍。中国目前控制着全球约 90% 的加工稀土和永磁体产量。分析人士警告称，摆脱这种主导地位不仅仅需要政治意志，还需要向价值链的中游和下游环节注入大量资金。

构建从采矿到最终产品加工的替代供应链将需要数十亿美元。尽管自 2026 年初以来已宣布了 195 个关键矿产项目，涉及约 640 亿欧元（740 亿美元）的投资，但挑战的规模依然巨大。G7 正呼吁开发金融机构、出口信贷机构和私营企业来填补这一投资缺口。

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