美印贸易乐观情绪推动印度卢比上涨 20 派索至 94.20

周五早盘交易中，印度卢比出现显著回升，兑美元上涨 20 派索，达到 94.20。这一上涨势头主要受到印度与美国之间双边贸易谈判乐观情绪的推动。

美印贸易谈判带来的提振

卢比升值的首要催化剂是对新德里与华盛顿之间拟议贸易协定的积极预期。印度外交秘书维克拉姆·米斯里（Vikram Misri）最近强调，贸易仍然是印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）之间讨论的核心支柱。两位领导人均已指示各自的谈判代表加快敲定中期贸易协定。

为了进一步推动这些外交努力，美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）计划于下周访问印度，以推进这些高层讨论。继两位领导人近期在 G7 峰会上进行广泛会谈后，这种外交势头为当地货币提供了急需的情绪提振。

市场驱动因素：油价与外资流入

除了地缘政治因素外，若干宏观经济因素也在支撑卢比的上行轨迹。外汇交易员指出，在油价走低和外资流入改善的推动下，该货币开盘表现积极。全球石油基准布伦特原油（Brent crude）在期货交易中下跌 0.85%，报每桶 79.17 美元，这通常会缓解通胀压力并支撑卢比。

尽管衡量美元兑六种主要货币强弱的美元指数小幅上涨 0.08% 至 100.92，但当地市场情绪依然看涨。卢比此前表现疲软，周二收于 94.40，但目前已从近期创下的历史收盘低点中恢复势头。

印度储备银行在汇率管理中的战略作用

市场分析师认为，印度储备银行（RBI）在管理货币波动方面发挥着积极作用。CR Forex Advisors 董事总经理 Amit Pabari 表示，预计 RBI 将利用流入的美元来重建外汇储备，并逐步减少其庞大的远期美元头寸，据估计该头寸约为 1100 亿美元。

There are indications that the central bank may have already purchased USD 3-5 billion over the last two sessions. Experts view this not as a sign of distress, but as a strategic move to take advantage of favourable market conditions. While such central bank interventions might slow the rapid appreciation of the rupee, they contribute to a more stable and gradual strengthening of the currency.

Divergence Between Forex and Equity Markets

Interestingly, the strength in the forex market stands in stark contrast to the domestic equity markets. In early trade, the Sensex tumbled 786.58 points to 76,624.90, while the Nifty declined 210.95 points to 23,959.80. This domestic sell-off follows a trend where Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 1,025.20 crore on a net basis during Thursday's session.

Key Takeaways

  • Trade Optimism: The rupee's rise is fueled by progress in US-India trade talks and the upcoming visit of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
  • Macroeconomic Support: Lower Brent crude prices (down 0.85% to $79.17) and improved foreign inflows are providing a tailwind for the local currency.
  • RBI Intervention: The central bank is likely managing its USD 110 billion forward book and rebuilding reserves, which helps ensure a stable appreciation of the rupee.