华尔街反弹：美伊达成协议后油价下跌，美股飙升

华尔街在周四见证了显著复苏，主要指数收复了此前大部分失地。此次反弹主要受到油市降温以及美伊达成突破性外交协议后美债收益率回落的推动。

地缘政治突破推动油价下跌

市场上涨的主要催化剂是华盛顿与德黑兰之间达成的初步协议，旨在结束敌对状态并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。该协议开启了为期 60 天的谈判期，重点是就伊朗核计划达成最终解决方案。根据条款，随着美国支持的制裁被豁免，伊朗可能会恢复石油出口，而德黑兰已承诺稀释其高浓缩铀库存。

地缘政治局势的缓和对能源市场产生了直接影响。布伦特原油下跌 1.19 美元，至每桶 78.36 美元；而美国基准原油下跌 1.56 美元，至每桶 74.45 美元。尽管价格仍高于 70 美元的战前水平，但已从几周前超过 100 美元的峰值大幅回落。能源成本的下降也为旅游和航空板块提供了助力，达美航空 (Delta)、联合航空 (United) 和美国航空 (American Airlines) 的涨幅均在 1.5% 至 2% 之间。

科技巨头领涨

科技股是华尔街表现最突出的板块，为纳斯达克综合指数提供了急需的动力，该指数上涨了 1.2%。英特尔 (Intel) 成为主要赢家，在唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布该芯片制造商已同意在美国境内为苹果 (Apple) 制造芯片后，其股价飙升了 8.7%。此消息传出之际，有报道称由于持续的内存芯片短缺，苹果正在考虑涨价。

与此形成对比的是，并非所有科技公司都实现了上涨；SpaceX 继续呈现下跌趋势，在周三下跌近 5% 后，其盘前交易又下跌了 3.2%。

应对美联储的不确定性

Despite the rally, investors remain cautious regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. The market is currently digesting signals from the latest policy meeting, where the central bank's stance on inflation remains a focal point. Out of the 18 members of the Fed's rate-setting committee, nine signalled support for higher interest rates this year, with six members backing at least two quarter-point increases.

While higher rates are intended to curb persistent inflation, they also pose the risk of slowing economic activity. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has indicated that the central bank is currently reviewing its communication strategies with markets and households to better manage expectations.

Global Market Divergence

While US and Asian markets showed resilience, European markets faced headwinds. Germany's DAX fell 0.1%, France's CAC 40 slipped 0.2%, and Britain's FTSE 100 lost 1%. Conversely, Asia saw record-breaking performances; Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.7% to a record close of 71,053.49, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 2.3%, bolstered by technology leaders Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Key Takeaways

  • Geopolitical Relief: The US-Iran agreement to negotiate nuclear settlements has lowered oil prices and eased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting investor sentiment.
  • Tech-Driven Recovery: Strong performance in the semiconductor sector, led by an 8.7% jump in Intel, helped the Nasdaq rise over 1%.
  • Monetary Policy Caution: Despite the stock market rebound, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, with a majority of members supporting further interest rate hikes this year to combat inflation.