Gold and Silver Prices Crash: Should You Sell or Accumulate Now?

Precious metal prices have witnessed a massive selloff on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), with gold falling below the ₹1.50 lakh mark and silver plummeting by ₹20,000 in just two sessions. This sharp correction is being driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising inflation fears linked to geopolitical tensions.

Massive Selloff on MCX: The Numbers

The precious metals market experienced significant volatility as gold and silver futures faced heavy downward pressure. MCX silver futures for July 2026 delivery dropped by ₹5,371 (2.3%) to settle at ₹2,32,201 per kg. Similarly, gold futures for August 2026 delivery declined by ₹2,269, bringing the price to ₹1,49,309 per 10 grams.

This recent dip follows an even more aggressive session where silver plunged over 5% and gold fell by 3%. Over the last two trading sessions, silver has lost a staggering ₹20,000 per kg, while gold has seen a decline of ₹7,000. Internationally, spot gold fell to $4,184.33 per ounce, marking a 0.9% decline for the week.

Drivers of the Decline: Fed Rates and the Dollar

The primary catalyst for this correction is the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve. As inflation concerns rise due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, central banks are signaling potential rate hikes to contain price pressures. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now estimate an 87% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

Since gold is a non-yielding asset, higher interest rates typically make it less attractive to investors compared to interest-bearing securities. Furthermore, a stronger U.S. dollar has exerted downward pressure on commodity prices globally, making them more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Market Outlook and Trading Strategy

Market experts suggest that volatility will continue due to fluctuating crude oil prices and the evolving US-Iran peace negotiations. For traders looking at technical levels, gold on the MCX has established support at the ₹1,48,000–₹1,46,650 range, with immediate resistance seen at ₹1,50,150–₹1,51,100. Silver is finding support between ₹2,34,000 and ₹2,30,500, while resistance sits at ₹2,41,000–₹2,44,400.

Mengenai strategi, Manoj Kumar Jain dari Prithvi Finmart menyarankan agar para trader jangka pendek tetap waspada, dan menyarankan mereka untuk menghindari posisi "long" baru pada level yang volatil ini. Namun, bagi investor jangka panjang, penurunan saat ini menyajikan peluang strategis untuk mengakumulasi emas dan perak melalui Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs).

Poin-Poin Penting

  • Koreksi Signifikan: Harga perak telah anjlok sebesar ₹20.000/kg dan emas sebesar ₹7.000 per 10g hanya dalam dua sesi.
  • Tekanan Makroekonomi: Probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga Fed AS sebesar 87% pada bulan Desember dan penguatan dolar AS merupakan pendorong utama di balik penurunan harga tersebut.
  • Saran Investasi: Meskipun trader jangka pendek disarankan untuk tetap waspada, investor jangka panjang mungkin menganggap ini waktu yang tepat untuk melakukan akumulasi melalui jalur SIP.