Wall Street Rebounds as US-Iran Deal Sends Oil Prices Sliding

US stock markets staged a significant recovery on Thursday, erasing much of the previous session's losses as geopolitical tensions eased. A breakthrough agreement between Washington and Tehran has cooled energy markets and lifted investor sentiment across major indices.

Geopolitical Breakthrough Triggers Oil Price Slide

The primary catalyst for the market rebound was an initial agreement between the US and Iran aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This deal initiates a 60-day negotiating process focused on a final settlement regarding Iran's nuclear programme. Under the terms, the US will waive certain sanctions to allow Iran to resume oil exports, while Tehran has committed to diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

The impact on energy markets was immediate. Brent crude fell by $1.19 to $78.36 a barrel, while the US benchmark crude dropped $1.56 to $74.45. While prices remain above the $70 pre-war baseline, they have retreated significantly from the $100-plus peaks seen just weeks ago. This decline in energy costs provided a direct boost to travel-related sectors, with airlines like Delta, United, and American seeing gains between 1.5% and 2%, while cruise operators such as Royal Caribbean and Carnival rose by more than 2%.

Tech Giants Lead the US Market Rally

The Nasdaq Composite outperformed other indices, advancing 1.2% driven by strength in the technology sector. A major highlight was Intel, which surged 8.7% following President Donald Trump's announcement that the chipmaker has agreed to manufacture chips for Apple within the United States. This news comes amid reports that Apple may face price hikes due to global memory chip shortages.

However, the rally was not uniform across all tech players. SpaceX continued its downward trend, falling 3.2% in premarket trading, adding to a 4.9% decline recorded on Wednesday.

Despite the bullish momentum, investors remain cautious regarding the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The recovery follows a period of retreat caused by fears that the Fed might raise interest rates further to combat persistent inflation.

市場参加者は、金利決定委員会からのシグナルを注視しています。現在、FRBのメンバー18名のうち9名が年内の利上げを支持しており、そのうち6名は2回以上の0.25%の利上げを支持しています。ケビン・ウォーシュFRB議長は2026年に関する決定的な予測を示していませんが、高金利が経済活動を減速させる可能性を懸念する人々にとって、中央銀行のコミュニケーション戦略は引き続き注目の的となっています。

世界市場の乖離：アジア市場が最高値を更新

欧州市場ではFTSE 100が1%下落するなど小幅な減少が見られた一方、アジア市場は大幅な急騰を見せました。日本の日経平均株価は、紛争の持続的な終結への楽観論とAI関連株への熱狂に後押しされ、1.7%上昇して終値ベースで過去最高となる71,053.49に達しました。同様に、韓国のKOSPIも、サムスン電子やSKハイニックスといった主力株に支えられ、2.3%急騰して再び最高値を更新しました。

主なポイント

  • 地政学的リスクの緩和: 米イラン合意により原油価格が下落し、ホルムズ海峡における供給途絶への懸念が和らぎました。
  • テック株の勢い: 国内製造に関するニュースを受けてインテルが8.7%急騰したことが、ナスダックの1.2%上昇を牽引しました。
  • 金融政策への警戒感: インフレを抑制するためにFRBメンバーの過半数が利上げの可能性を示唆していることから、投資家は引き続き警戒を強めています。