Nifty Target 28,000 by 2026: Monarch Networth Outlines Growth Path
Brokerage firm Monarch Networth Capital has issued a bullish outlook for the Indian equity markets, forecasting that the Nifty index could reach the 27,000–28,000 range by calendar year 2026. This optimistic projection is anchored by a projected recovery in corporate earnings and a robust expansion in private sector capital expenditure.
Drivers of the Bullish Nifty Forecast
Monarch Networth believes India's structural growth story remains resilient despite recent market volatility and sustained selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). The brokerage views the recent correction in large-cap sectors as excessive when measured against underlying fundamentals. To support its valuation, the firm estimates Nifty earnings per share (EPS) will rise to 1,251 for FY27 and further to 1,443 for FY28.
A primary driver for this growth is the massive surge in corporate capex. Gaurav Bhandari, CEO of Monarch Networth Capital, noted that capex for the top 500 listed non-financial companies has nearly doubled to approximately Rs 10 lakh crore compared to pre-pandemic levels. This, combined with structural reforms like GST, RERA, and the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, provides a strong foundation for long-term market gains.
Sectoral Outlook: Banking, Telecom, and IT to Lead
The brokerage expects the next leg of the bull run to be spearheaded by sectors that have recently underperformed. Specifically, banking, telecom, and a gradual recovery in large-cap IT stocks are expected to drive the index upward.
Furthermore, Monarch is constructive on the midcap and smallcap segments. Following an 18-month period of valuation correction and earnings adjustment, the risk-reward profile has improved. The firm projects the Nifty Midcap 150 index to reach 25,595 and the Nifty Smallcap 250 index to climb to approximately 19,640. The anticipated rate-cut cycle is expected to act as a catalyst, reducing financing costs and boosting operating leverage for these smaller companies.
Top Stock Picks for Investors
Monarch Networth has identified three specific stocks that offer compelling opportunities based on their unique growth drivers:
- State Bank of India (SBI): 해당 증권사는 SBI가 강력한 자산 건전성과 건전한 대출 성장을 바탕으로 매력적인 투자처라고 강조했습니다. 주요 민간 은행과 대등한 수익성 수준에도 불구하고, SBI는 계속해서 밸류에이션 할인을 받고 거래되고 있어 자회사들을 통한 상당한 가치 창출 잠재력을 제공합니다.
- HFCL: 장기적인 기술 변화의 수혜주로 자리매김한 HFCL은 강력한 수주 잔고와 성장하는 수출 사업 덕분에 번창할 것으로 예상됩니다. 주요 호재로는 5G 구축, 데이터 센터 확장, 광섬유 수요 증가 등이 있습니다.
- Hindustan Copper: 인도의 유일한 수직 계열화된 구리 생산 기업으로서, 이 국영 광산업체는 증가하는 국내 수요와 "Vision 2030" 확장 전략의 수혜를 입을 것으로 보입니다.
핵심 요약
- Nifty 전망: Monarch Networth는 2027 및 2028 회계연도의 EPS 추정치 상승에 힘입어, Nifty가 2026년까지 27,000~28,000에 도달할 것으로 전망했습니다.
- 설비투자(Capex) 급증: 상위 500개 비금융 기업의 설비투자(Capex)가 약 10라크 크로르 루피로 두 배 가까이 증가하면서 인도 기업계의 회복력을 뒷받침하고 있습니다.
- 전략적 섹터: 은행, 통신, IT 분야가 회복을 주도할 것으로 예상되는 반면, 금리 인하 주기는 중소형주 지수의 상당한 상승을 이끌 수 있습니다.