US Markets Diverge: Dow Hits Record High as Nasdaq Slips Ahead of Fed

Wall Street displayed significant divergence on Tuesday as investors rotated out of high-flying technology stocks and into more economically sensitive sectors. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved its second consecutive record close, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 retreated as markets braced for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision.

Tech Stocks Retreat as Investors Rotate Sectors

The primary driver behind the downward movement in the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 was a cooling in the technology sector. After experiencing massive rallies earlier in the week—including a 3% advance by the Nasdaq on Monday—investors appeared to be taking profits. Chip stocks, which had soared over the previous three sessions, faced sharp selling pressure.

The S&P 500 dropped 41.85 points, or 0.55%, to finish at 7,512.44, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 301.13 points, representing a 1.15% decline to close at 26,382.81. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 345.54 points, or 0.67%, reaching a record 52,016.57, driven by strength in the financials and industrials sectors.

SpaceX Valuation Surges Amid AI and Rocket Interest

A notable outlier in the session was SpaceX. The rocket and AI company saw its market value fluctuate wildly, briefly surpassing the valuations of tech giants Amazon and Microsoft. Despite some pared gains toward the end of the session, the intense interest in SpaceX was highlighted by record-breaking volumes in options trading, as investors aggressively chased the stock.

Geopolitical Shifts Drive Oil Prices Lower

Energy markets saw a significant downturn, with U.S. oil futures settling down 5.8%. This decline was largely attributed to emerging details regarding a U.S.-Iran interim deal. The agreement is expected to extend a tenuous ceasefire by 60 days and, crucially, reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The prospect of Iran being allowed to sell oil upon signing the deal has relieved some of the supply-chain fears that had been driving up prices since February. Lower oil prices are generally viewed as a positive for inflation control, which directly impacts the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.

Anticipation Builds for the Federal Reserve Decision

Осторожная фаза «переваривания» на рынке наступает непосредственно перед обновлением политики Федеральной резервной системы. Хотя консенсус-прогноз предполагает, что ФРС сохранит процентные ставки в текущем диапазоне от 3,50% до 3,75%, все внимание приковано к новому председателю ФРС Кевину Уоршу. Инвесторы ожидают конкретных ориентиров относительно инфляции, безработицы и более широких экономических перспектив.

Согласно инструменту FedWatch от CME Group, хотя трейдеры ожидают, что ставки останутся стабильными на протяжении большей части года, в настоящее время подразумеваемая вероятность повышения ставки на 25 базисных пунктов в декабре составляет 42%.

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