Nifty Ifikie 28,000 ifikapo 2026: Monarch Networth Yatabiri Ukuaji wa Kasi

Kampuni ya udalali Monarch Networth Capital imetoa mtazamo wenye matumaini makubwa kwa masoko ya hisa ya India, ikitabiri kuwa Nifty itafikia kiwango cha 27,000–28,000 ifikapo mwaka wa kalenda 2026. Mtazamo huu chanya unategemea kupona kwa kasi kwa mapato ya makampuni na ongezeko kubwa la matumizi ya mtaji katika sekta binafsi.

Nguvu Zinazochochea Ongezeko la Nifty

Kulingana na Monarch Networth, hadithi ya ukuaji wa kimuundo wa India inabaki kuwa imara licha ya vipindi vya hivi karibuni vya mabadiliko ya soko na uuzaji endelevu uliofanywa na Wawekezaji wa Kitaasisi wa Kigeni (FIIs). Kampuni hiyo ya udalali inadai kuwa marekebisho ya hivi karibuni katika sekta za makampuni makubwa (large-cap) yamekuwa makubwa mno ikilinganishwa na misingi ya msingi.

Kiini cha matumaini haya ni ukuaji unaotarajiwa wa mapato kwa kila hisa (EPS). Monarch inakadiria kuwa EPS ya Nifty itapanda hadi 1,251 kwa FY27 na kufikia 1,443 ifikapo FY28. Ukuaji huu unachochewa na vichocheo kadhaa vya kiuchumi, ikiwa ni pamoja na mpango wa Motisha Unaohusishwa na Uzalishaji (PLI), mageuzi ya GST, na uwekezaji mkubwa katika miundombinu. Sababu ya kipekee ni ustahimilivu wa "India Inc."; matumizi ya mtaji kwa makampuni 500 ya juu yaliyoorodheshwa yasiyo ya kifedha yameongezeka karibu mara mbili hadi takriban ₹10 lakh crore ikilinganishwa na viwango vya kabla ya janga.

Sekta Zinazoshinda: Benki, Mawasiliano, na IT

Kampuni hiyo ya udalali inatambua "hatua inayofuata" ya ongezeko la soko kuwa inaongozwa na sekta tatu kuu: Benki, Mawasiliano, na Teknolojia. Sekta hizi hivi karibuni zimekuwa zikifanya vibaya kutokana na mtiririko wa fedha nje (FII outflows), jambo linalounda fursa ya uwekezaji kwa wawekezaji.

Aidha, Monarch ina mtazamo chanya kwa sehemu za midcap na smallcap. Baada ya kipindi cha miezi 18 cha marekebisho ya thamani na marekebisho ya mapato, wasilisho la hatari dhidi ya faida (risk-reward profile) limeimarika kwa kiasi kikubwa. Kampuni hiyo inatabiri kuwa Nifty Midcap 150 itafikia 25,595 na Nifty Smallcap 250 itapanda hadi takriban 19,640. Kichocheo muhimu kwa makampuni haya madogo kitakuwa mzunguko unaoendelea wa kupunguzwa kwa viwango vya riba, ambao unapunguza gharama za ufadhili na kuongeza ufanisi wa uendeshaji (operating leverage).

Uchaguzi Bora wa Hisa kwa Wawekezaji

Monarch Networth imetambua hisa tatu mahususi zinazotoa fursa zenye kuvutia kulingana na vichocheo vyao vya kipekee vya ukuaji:

• State Bank of India (SBI): Viewed as an attractive risk-reward play, SBI benefits from strong asset quality and healthy loan growth. Despite profitability metrics that rival leading private sector banks, the brokerage notes that SBI continues to trade at a significant valuation discount.
• HFCL: The brokerage is positive on this player due to a strong order book and an earnings turnaround. HFCL is positioned to benefit from long-term tailwinds such as 5G rollout, data center expansion, and increased fiber demand.
• Hindustan Copper: As India's only vertically integrated copper producer, the state-run miner is poised for growth driven by rising domestic demand and the company's "Vision 2030" expansion strategy.

Key Takeaways

• Bullish Nifty Targets: Monarch Networth expects Nifty to hit 27,000–28,000 by 2026, supported by rising EPS projections for FY27 and FY28.
• Capex-Led Growth: Corporate capital expenditure for the top 500 non-financial firms has nearly doubled to ₹10 lakh crore, providing a strong fundamental floor.
• Strategic Sectors: Investors should look toward Banking, Telecom, and IT for the next recovery leg, alongside midcap and smallcap stocks benefiting from potential rate cuts.