Wall Street Rallies as US-Iran Deal Triggers Oil Price Slump and AI Surge

Global financial markets surged on Monday following news of a tentative agreement between the United States and Iran to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical breakthrough has significantly lowered energy costs and eased fears of persistent inflation, driving a broad-based rally across major indices.

Oil Prices Tumble Amid Geopolitical De-escalation

The most immediate impact of the US-Iran agreement was felt in the energy sector. Brent crude oil prices plummeted by 4.8%, dropping to $83.18 per barrel—a level not seen since early March. While prices remain above the $70 mark seen prior to the conflict, they are a far cry from the $100+ levels recorded just weeks ago.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore the flow of crude oil, potentially reducing costs for food, fuel, and fertilizer. Although Iran has indicated that full implementation will follow a formal signing in Switzerland this Friday, the market has already priced in the relief. Industry observers note that while the deal is a milestone, it may take several months for energy flows to fully normalize.

AI and Travel Sectors Lead the Market Rally

With lower fuel costs on the horizon, the travel and transportation sectors saw significant gains. American Airlines jumped 7%, followed by Carnival at 5.7% and United Airlines at 5.2%.

Simultaneously, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector regained momentum after recent volatility. Semiconductor giants led the charge, with Micron Technology rising 7.8% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbing 7%. Nvidia also advanced 2.7%, providing a massive boost to the S&P 500 due to its heavy index weighting.

A standout performer was SpaceX, which climbed 5.4% in its second day of Wall Street trading. The company is now valued at over $2.1 trillion, a valuation that exceeds the combined market caps of Exxon Mobil, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola.

Easing Inflationary Fears Impact Interest Rate Outlook

The sudden drop in energy prices has also influenced the bond market and expectations for US monetary policy. Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.45% from 4.48%.

La baisse des prix du pétrole a réduit la pression immédiate sur la Réserve fédérale américaine pour durcir sa politique monétaire. Selon les données du CME Group, les traders ont fortement réduit la probabilité d'une hausse des taux cette année, passant de 71 % il y a une semaine à seulement 55 %. Ce changement intervient juste avant la décision de politique monétaire de la Fed cette semaine, la première sous la direction du nouveau président Kevin Warsh, alors que les marchés s'attendent largement à ce que les taux restent inchangés.

Les marchés mondiaux réagissent positivement

Le rallye ne s'est pas limité à Wall Street. En Asie, le Nikkei 225 du Japon a bondi de 5 % pour atteindre un niveau record, tandis que le Kospi de Corée du Sud a grimpé de 5,2 %, porté par les gains de Samsung Electronics. Les analystes suggèrent que les achats d'investisseurs étrangers stimulent ces marchés asiatiques alors que les tensions mondiales au Moyen-Orient semblent s'apaiser.

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