SpaceX Valuation Nears $3 Trillion, Surpassing Amazon and Microsoft

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has staged a monumental market debut, with its valuation surging past tech giants Amazon and Microsoft in a matter of days. Driven by intense post-IPO momentum, the rockets-to-AI powerhouse is rapidly reshaping the hierarchy of the world's most valuable companies.

A Meteoric Rise to the Top Five

Following a blockbuster Initial Public Offering (IPO), SpaceX shares climbed 14.3% on Tuesday, reaching $220 per share. This surge represents a staggering 62% jump from its $135 IPO price. If these gains hold, the company’s market capitalization will sit at approximately $2.85 trillion.

This rapid appreciation has allowed SpaceX to overtake Amazon, which holds a $2.64 trillion valuation, and briefly leapfrog Microsoft’s $2.92 trillion market cap. The stock's performance was the primary driver behind the Nasdaq Composite index's gains, with trading volumes exceeding $23.1 billion—surpassing the combined trading volumes of Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple.

Speculation vs. Fundamentals

Despite the astronomical valuation, market analysts are raising red flags regarding the company's underlying financials. Unlike many Wall Street technology leaders that report massive profits, SpaceX reported sales of $18.67 billion last year but posted a net loss of $4.94 billion. This loss is largely attributed to its merger with the money-losing AI firm, xAI.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, noted that the current valuation appears disconnected from reality, suggesting that much of the movement is driven by speculative buying. Furthermore, the company's recent announcement to acquire software firm Anysphere for $60 billion adds another layer of complexity to its high-stakes growth strategy.

Index Inclusion and Future Volatility

Investors should prepare for significant volatility due to SpaceX's relatively small "float" (the number of shares available for public trading). However, several technical factors could provide a floor for the stock price. SpaceX is slated for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, and will be added to the FTSE Russell and MSCI indexes on June 26 and June 29, respectively.

Inklusi ini sangat krusial karena mewajibkan dana pasif dan ETF yang melacak indeks-indeks ini untuk membeli saham SpaceX, sehingga menciptakan aliran permintaan institusional yang terjamin. Selain itu, peluncuran opsi SpaceX—dengan harga pelaksanaan (strike) yang berkisar antara $25 hingga $380—menawarkan cara baru bagi para trader untuk bertaruh pada saham tersebut, yang berpotensi memperhebat fluktuasi harga dalam jangka pendek.

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