Wall Street Rebounds: US Stocks Surge as US-Iran Deal Lowers Oil Prices

US equity markets staged a strong recovery on Thursday, erasing much of the previous session's losses as geopolitical tensions eased. A significant breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations and falling energy costs have bolstered investor confidence, driving major indices higher.

Geopolitical Breakthrough Drives Oil Prices Down

The primary catalyst for the market rebound was the initial agreement between Washington and Tehran to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal initiates a 60-day negotiating process focused on Iran's nuclear programme, where Iran has agreed to dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for the waiver of US-backed sanctions on oil exports.

This diplomatic progress triggered a sharp decline in energy markets. Brent crude fell by $1.19 to $78.36 a barrel, while the US benchmark crude dropped $1.56 to $74.45 a barrel. While prices remain above the pre-war benchmark of $70, they have retreated significantly from the $100-plus levels witnessed just weeks ago. This drop in input costs provided a much-needed boost to travel and transport sectors, with Delta, United, and American Airlines seeing gains between 1.5% and 2%.

Tech Giants Lead the Rally

The Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 1.2% advance, fueled largely by a massive surge in the semiconductor sector. Intel shares skyrocketed by 8.7% following an announcement by President Donald Trump that the chipmaker had agreed to manufacture chips for Apple within the United States. This news comes as Apple navigates potential price hikes driven by global memory chip shortages.

In contrast to the semiconductor boom, the space sector faced headwinds. SpaceX extended its recent downward trend, falling 3.2% in premarket trading following a nearly 5% decline on Wednesday.

Despite the bullish sentiment, investors remain cautious regarding the US Federal Reserve's next moves. The market is closely analyzing signals from the latest policy meeting, where nine out of 18 members of the rate-setting committee signaled support for higher interest rates this year to combat persistent inflation. Specifically, six members backed two or more quarter-point increases.

금리 인상은 인플레이션을 억제하기 위한 목적이지만, 경제 활동을 둔화시킬 위험이 있습니다. 케빈 워시 연준 의장은 중앙은행의 커뮤니케이션 전략을 재검토하겠다고 시사했으나, 2026년에 대한 구체적인 금리 전망을 제시하는 것은 자제했습니다.

글로벌 시장 심리

월스트리트와 주요 아시아 시장은 상승세를 보인 반면, 유럽 시장은 소폭 하락했습니다. 독일의 DAX는 0.1% 하락했고, 프랑스의 CAC 40은 0.2% 밀렸으며, 영국의 FTSE 100은 1% 하락했습니다. 하지만 아시아에서는 낙관론이 우세했습니다. 일본의 Nikkei 225는 71,053.49로 사상 최고 종가를 기록했으며, 한국의 Kospi는 기술주 리더인 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 주도로 2.3% 상승하며 또 다른 사상 최고치를 경신했습니다.

핵심 요약

  • 지정학적 완화: 호르무즈 해협을 재개방하기로 한 미-이란 합의가 유가를 성공적으로 낮추면서, 항공사와 같은 에너지 민감 업종에 안도감을 제공했습니다.
  • 기술주 모멘텀: 애플을 위한 미국 내 제조 소식에 힘입은 인텔의 8.7% 급등이 나스닥(Nasdaq) 1.2% 상승의 주요 동력이 되었습니다.
  • 연준의 신중론: 시장의 상승세에도 불구하고, 시장 참여자들은 연준 내의 매파적 기조를 주시하고 있으며, 위원 대다수가 올해 추가 금리 인상을 지지하고 있습니다.